Constituency profile

Kettering

East Midlands · County constituency · North Northamptonshire borough

Rosie Wrighting MP
Sitting MP

Rosie Wrighting

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East Midlands
County constituency, North Northamptonshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
61.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +9.1pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +3.5pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
MidlandsStrong Leave area

About the Kettering constituency

Kettering is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Rosie Wrighting (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.9% to 28.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,820 votes on a 63.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 27.7% and Labour on 24.1%, a margin of 3.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Kettering? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
61.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
28.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
32.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.9
UK median ~40
Age 65+
22.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
28.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Kettering vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 3,820 votes (7.7pp) · turnout 63.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Kettering

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Kettering within North Northamptonshire

Kettering sits entirely within North Northamptonshire Council. North Northamptonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Northamptonshire
63 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
18 Oct 2024Burton and Broughton
North Northamptonshire
Con HOLD
7 Apr 2024Desborough
North Northamptonshire
Con HOLD
3 Feb 2023Northall
North Northamptonshire
Lab GAIN from Con

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Burton and BroughtonLabour 35.5%vs Conservative 30.4%2021 Conservative 52.4%vs Lib Dem 21.2%--
Clover HillLabour 29.3%vs Conservative 24.1%2021 Green 56.0%vs Conservative 29.3%--
Corby RuralLabour 41.6%vs Conservative 32.0%2021 Conservative 54.4%vs Labour 37.8%--
DesboroughLabour 40.4%vs Conservative 29.2%2021 Conservative 54.7%vs Labour 29.7%--
IseLabour 37.2%vs Conservative 33.1%2021 Conservative 60.6%vs Labour 28.1%--
NorthallLabour 37.8%vs Conservative 23.3%2021 Conservative 50.0%vs Labour 44.6%--
Rothwell and MawsleyLabour 32.0%vs Conservative 31.3%2021 Conservative 53.6%vs Independent 21.9%--
WicksteedLabour 32.5%vs Conservative 28.9%2021 Conservative 49.3%vs Labour 24.9%--
WindmillLabour 38.2%vs Conservative 25.0%2021 Conservative 50.5%vs Labour 43.8%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Kettering at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Kettering at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdPhilip Hollobone29.9%49.1%15.8%--5.1%9,09468.8%
2015Con holdPhilip Hollobone25.2%51.8%3.2%16.1% UKIP3.5%0.3%12,59067.3%-1.5
2017Con holdPhilip Hollobone36.5%57.9%3.3%-2.3%-10,56269.2%+1.9
2019notionalConservative winnerPhilip Hollobone 2019 MP, pre-review boundary26.9%60.3%6.7%-3.0%3.1%17,36368.3%-0.9
2024Lab gain from ConRosie Wrighting35.9%28.2%2.7%16.9% Ref13.9%2.4%3,82063.3%-5.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Kettering

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kettering. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.