Chatham and Aylesford
South East · County constituency
About the Chatham and Aylesford constituency
Chatham and Aylesford is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Tristan Osborne (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 33.5% to 28.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,998 votes on a 54.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 37.3% and Labour on 25.2%, a margin of 12.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Chatham and Aylesford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chatham and Aylesford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chatham and Aylesford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chatham and Aylesford within Medway and Tonbridge and Malling
Chatham and Aylesford crosses council boundaries: Medway (71%), Tonbridge and Malling (29%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Medway | 71% |
| Tonbridge and Malling | 29% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Snodland East and Ham Hill | Con GAIN from Lab | Con 44% Lab 28% Other 16% |
| 7 Feb 2025 | Rochester East & Warren Wood | Ref GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aylesford North & North Downs | Conservative 38.3%vs Labour 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 47.0%vs Labour 23.6% | - | 38.6% |
| Chatham Central & Brompton | Labour 40.5%vs Reform 25.9% | 2023 Labour 63.3%vs Conservative 26.0% | - | 24.5% |
| Fort Horsted | Conservative 33.2%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Conservative 45.2%vs Lib Dem 31.8% | - | 30.6% |
| Fort Pitt | Labour 38.2%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Labour 57.5%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 37.7% |
| Larkfield | Labour 30.8%vs Reform 25.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 81.8%vs Conservative 18.2% | - | 25.6% |
| Lordswood & Walderslade | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 62.0%vs Labour 30.6% | - | 30.2% |
| Luton | Labour 37.4%vs Reform 25.4% | 2023 Labour 53.2%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 24.0% |
| Princes Park | Conservative 31.0%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 61.3%vs Labour 29.8% | - | 25.5% |
| Rochester East & Warren Wood | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2023 Labour 61.9%vs Conservative 30.2% | - | 32.2% |
| Snodland East & Ham Hill | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Labour 52.1%vs Conservative 47.9% | - | 22.3% |
| Snodland West & Holborough Lakes | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Labour 60.4%vs Conservative 36.3% | - | 28.5% |
| Walderslade | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 26.6% | 2023 Conservative 65.3%vs Labour 26.2% | - | 35.5% |
| Wayfield & Weeds Wood | Labour 38.2%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Labour 51.5%vs Conservative 40.3% | - | 29.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chatham and Aylesford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chatham and Aylesford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Tracey Crouch | 32.3% | 46.2% | 13.3% | 6,069 | 64.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Tracey Crouch | 23.6% | 50.2% | 3.2% | 11,455 | 64.9%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Tracey Crouch | 33.7% | 57.0% | 2.5% | 10,458 | 63.7%-1.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Tracey Crouch 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 24.4% | 65.9% | 6.7% | 18,992 | 61.2%-2.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Tristan Osborne | 33.5% | 28.6% | 5.3% | 1,998 | 54.4%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Chatham and Aylesford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chatham and Aylesford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave63.9 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.4 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate24.4 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.9 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↑Leave63.9 / 64.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.4 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.9 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.4 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.9 / 65.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.4 / 27.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.