Nuneaton
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Nuneaton constituency
Nuneaton is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Jodie Gosling (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.9% to 28.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,479 votes on a 57.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.4% and Labour on 27.1%, a margin of 5.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Nuneaton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Nuneaton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Nuneaton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Nuneaton within Nuneaton and Bedworth and North Warwickshire
Nuneaton crosses council boundaries: Nuneaton and Bedworth (90%), North Warwickshire (10%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Nuneaton and Bedworth | 90% | View projection › |
| North Warwickshire | 10% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Camp Hill | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 49% Lab 42% Con 9% |
| 1 May 2025 | Arley and Whitacre | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 45% Lab 19% Con 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbury | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 30.9% | May 2026 Reform 46.5%vs Conservative 19.2% | Labour→Reform +22.9pp | 36.5% |
| Arley and Whitacre | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Labour 56.3%vs Conservative 39.4% | - | 31.9% |
| Attleborough | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Reform 46.5%vs Conservative 18.9% | Labour→Reform +21.0pp | 35.2% |
| Camp Hill | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 46.1%vs Labour 23.1% | Labour→Reform +20.9pp | 28.8% |
| Galley Common | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 28.9% | May 2026 Reform 53.4%vs Conservative 17.7% | Labour→Reform +25.9pp | 34.6% |
| Hartshill | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Labour 49.9% | - | 30.1% |
| St Nicolas | Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 27.7% | May 2026 Reform 35.3%vs Conservative 28.6% | Conservative→Reform +9.2pp | 50.2% |
| Weddington | Labour 30.1%vs Conservative 30.1% | May 2026 Green 44.3%vs Reform 35.5% | Labour→Green +28.3pp | 42.1% |
| Whitestone | Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 27.7% | May 2026 Reform 39.4%vs Conservative 38.1% | Conservative→Reform +10.2pp | 48.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Nuneaton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Nuneaton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Marcus Jones | 36.9% | 41.5% | 15.3% | 2,069 | 65.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Marcus Jones | 34.9% | 45.5% | 1.8% | 4,882 | 67.2%+1.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Marcus Jones | 41.3% | 51.6% | 2.0% | 4,739 | 66.6%-0.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Marcus Jones 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 31.5% | 60.6% | 4.1% | 13,144 | 64.2%-2.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jodie Gosling | 36.9% | 28.5% | 3.3% | 3,479 | 57.4%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Nuneaton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Nuneaton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.5 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.0 / 65.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.5 / 63.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.0 / 65.6vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.5 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↑Leave64.5 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.0 / 64.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.5 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 26.5vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.