Burton and Uttoxeter
West Midlands · County constituency · East Staffordshire borough
About the Burton and Uttoxeter constituency
Burton and Uttoxeter is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Jacob Collier (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.5% to 30.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,266 votes on a 58.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.6% and the Conservatives on 26.3%, a margin of 4.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Burton and Uttoxeter? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Burton and Uttoxeter vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Burton and Uttoxeter
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Burton and Uttoxeter within East Staffordshire
Burton and Uttoxeter sits entirely within East Staffordshire Council. East Staffordshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Staffordshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2024 | Stretton | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anglesey | Labour 46.4%vs Conservative 20.2% | 2023 Labour 79.9%vs Conservative 14.1% | - | 24.2% |
| Blythe | Conservative 39.2%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Independent 44.9%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | 37.2% |
| Branston | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Labour 43.0%vs Conservative 41.5% | - | 31.4% |
| Brizlincote | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 48.4%vs Labour 37.0% | - | 36.0% |
| Burton & Eton | Labour 44.5%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Labour 74.6%vs Conservative 15.4% | - | 20.6% |
| Crown | Conservative 45.6%vs Labour 25.2% | 2023 Conservative 41.0%vs Independent 32.5% | - | 37.5% |
| Dove | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 32.5% | 2023 Conservative 55.5%vs Labour 44.5% | - | 29.0% |
| Heath | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Labour 57.8%vs Conservative 42.2% | - | 26.0% |
| Horninglow & Outwoods | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Labour 54.8%vs Conservative 30.4% | - | 29.3% |
| Shobnall | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Labour 76.7%vs Conservative 17.4% | - | 20.2% |
| Stapenhill | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2023 Labour 60.4%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 52.9% |
| Stramshall & Weaver | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Labour 25.6% | - | 39.0% |
| Stretton | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 51.2%vs Labour 37.8% | - | 29.9% |
| Town | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Labour 41.1%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | 33.1% |
| Winshill | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Labour 53.1%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 27.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Burton and Uttoxeter at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Burton and Uttoxeter at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Andrew Griffiths Burton MP | 31.9% | 44.5% | 15.8% | 6,304 | 66.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Griffiths Burton MP | 27.5% | 49.8% | 2.5% | 10,892 | 65.1%-1.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Griffiths Burton MP | 37.8% | 58.0% | 2.5% | 10,047 | 67.5%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Kate Griffiths Burton MP, pre-review boundary | 30.9% | 60.7% | 5.5% | 14,496 | 64.6% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jacob Collier | 35.6% | 30.6% | 3.6% | 2,266 | 58.5%-6.1 |
Burton and Uttoxeter was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Burton (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Burton and Uttoxeter
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Burton and Uttoxeter. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.8 / 64.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 29.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 26.5vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.