Gillingham and Rainham
South East · Borough constituency · Medway borough
About the Gillingham and Rainham constituency
Gillingham and Rainham is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Naushabah Khan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 37.8% to 28.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,972 votes on a 56.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.3% and Labour on 29.4%, a margin of 4.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Gillingham and Rainham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gillingham and Rainham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gillingham and Rainham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Gillingham and Rainham within Medway
Gillingham and Rainham sits entirely within Medway Council. Medway was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Medway | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2025 | Gillingham South | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham North | Labour 44.6%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Labour 67.6%vs Conservative 22.7% | - | 24.8% |
| Gillingham South | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 22.6% | 2023 Labour 69.4%vs Conservative 20.2% | - | 25.4% |
| Hempstead & Wigmore | Conservative 40.3%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 67.2%vs Labour 21.3% | - | 38.6% |
| Rainham North | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 35.1% | - | 30.2% |
| Rainham South East | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Conservative 55.7%vs Labour 32.3% | - | 31.5% |
| Rainham South West | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 50.3%vs Labour 28.5% | - | 36.0% |
| Twydall | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2023 Labour 57.4%vs Conservative 31.0% | - | 25.9% |
| Watling | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Labour 63.6%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 36.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gillingham and Rainham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gillingham and Rainham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Rehman Chishti | 27.7% | 46.2% | 18.1% | 8,680 | 66.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Rehman Chishti | 25.6% | 48.0% | 3.6% | 10,530 | 66.3%+0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Rehman Chishti | 36.1% | 55.4% | 2.8% | 9,430 | 67.0%+0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rehman Chishti 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 28.4% | 61.3% | 5.4% | 15,119 | 62.1%-4.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Naushabah Khan | 37.8% | 28.2% | 5.5% | 3,972 | 56.0%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gillingham and Rainham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gillingham and Rainham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave63.6 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 64.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave63.6 / 63.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 24.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 65.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave63.6 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 65.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave63.6 / 64.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave63.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 29.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 64.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.