Broxbourne
East of England · County constituency
About the Broxbourne constituency
Broxbourne is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Lewis Cocking (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.8% to 30.1% for Labour, a majority of 2,858 votes on a 57.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 36.8% and the Conservatives on 31.1%, a margin of 5.7 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Broxbourne? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Broxbourne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Broxbourne
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Broxbourne within Broxbourne and East Hertfordshire
Broxbourne crosses council boundaries: Broxbourne (91%), East Hertfordshire (9%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Broxbourne | 91% | View projection › |
| East Hertfordshire | 9% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broxbourne and Hoddesdon South | Conservative 45.1%vs Labour 24.0% | May 2026 Conservative 50.0%vs Reform 27.4% | Conservative share +4.9pp | - |
| Cheshunt North | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 32.8% | May 2026 Conservative 36.9%vs Reform 33.1% | Conservative share +2.3pp | - |
| Cheshunt South and Theobalds | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 32.6% | May 2026 Conservative 40.3%vs Reform 28.6% | Labour→Conservative +12.8pp | - |
| Flamstead End | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 28.4% | May 2026 Conservative 41.7%vs Reform 35.6% | Conservative share +2.9pp | - |
| Goffs Oak | Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 23.7% | May 2026 Conservative 43.5%vs Reform 37.2% | Conservative share +1.6pp | - |
| Great Amwell & Stansteads | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 27.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.4%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 29.0% |
| Hertford Heath & Brickendon | Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 23.5% | 2023 Green 52.7%vs Conservative 34.2% | - | 34.0% |
| Hoddesdon North | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 27.8% | May 2026 Conservative 44.3%vs Reform 36.8% | Conservative share +2.1pp | - |
| Hoddesdon Town and Rye Park | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 31.4% | May 2026 Reform 40.5%vs Conservative 32.4% | Conservative→Reform +10.7pp | - |
| Rosedale and Bury Green | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 31.3% | May 2026 Reform 36.2%vs Conservative 35.5% | Conservative→Reform +6.4pp | - |
| Waltham Cross | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 27.1% | May 2026 Labour 28.7%vs Reform 28.1% | Labour share -12.8pp | - |
| Wormley and Turnford | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 31.2% | May 2026 Conservative 45.2%vs Reform 31.7% | Conservative share +10.5pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Broxbourne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Broxbourne at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Charles Walker | 17.6% | 58.8% | 13.4% | 18,804 | 64.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Charles Walker | 18.4% | 56.1% | 3.2% | 16,723 | 63.1%-0.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Charles Walker | 28.9% | 62.2% | 3.1% | 15,792 | 64.6%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Charles Walker 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 24.0% | 64.2% | 9.0% | 19,192 | 63.2%-1.4 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Lewis Cocking | 30.2% | 36.8% | 6.3% | 2,858 | 57.1%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Broxbourne
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Broxbourne. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.5 / 63.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 24.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 65.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.5 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 64.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.5 / 69.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 29.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.5 / 64.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.5 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 66.3vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.