North West Essex
East of England · County constituency
About the North West Essex constituency
North West Essex is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Mrs Kemi Badenoch (Conservative), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 30.8% for Labour, a majority of 2,610 votes on a 68.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.4% and the Conservatives on 27.6%, a margin of 5.8 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in North West Essex? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North West Essex vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North West Essex
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North West Essex within Uttlesford and Chelmsford
North West Essex crosses council boundaries: Uttlesford (73%), Chelmsford (27%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Uttlesford | 73% |
| Chelmsford | 27% |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broomfield & Writtle | Con | Con 38% Ref 34% LD 14% | 49.4% |
| Dunmow | Ref | Ref 43% Con 33% Grn 9% | 47.9% |
| Saffron Walden | Residents for Uttlesford | Residents for Uttlesford 38% Ref 19% Con 18% | 47.0% |
| Stansted | Con | Con 30% Ref 25% LD 17% | 50.4% |
| Takeley | Ref | Ref 40% Con 38% Residents for Uttlesford 8% | 46.6% |
| Thaxted | Ref | Ref 31% Residents for Uttlesford 27% Con 25% | 49.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Stort Valley | Con GAIN from LD | Con 46% LD 32% Ref 22% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashdon | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 41.2%vs Others 37.0% | - | 43.8% |
| Boreham and The Leighs | Conservative 38.3%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | - | 26.0% |
| Broomfield and The Walthams | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 39.2%vs Lib Dem 33.2% | - | 41.0% |
| Chelmsford Rural West | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 28.3% | 2023 Conservative 69.3%vs Lib Dem 16.3% | - | 34.2% |
| Clavering | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 33.1% | 2023 Conservative 59.7%vs Green 24.0% | - | 44.5% |
| Debden & Wimbish | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 27.9% | 2023 Others 42.2%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 39.3% |
| Elsenham & Henham | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 28.1% | 2023 Others 49.9%vs Conservative 19.0% | - | 42.4% |
| Flitch Green & Little Dunmow | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Others 17.7% | - | 29.2% |
| Great Dunmow North | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 33.1% | 2023 Conservative 42.2%vs Others 38.5% | - | 34.8% |
| Great Dunmow South & Barnston | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 29.0% | 2023 Conservative 43.6%vs Others 34.1% | - | 31.4% |
| High Easter & the Rodings | Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 70.0%vs Green 16.8% | - | 35.1% |
| Littlebury, Chesterford & Wenden Lofts | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Independent 62.8%vs Conservative 24.5% | - | 50.8% |
| Newport | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Others 68.1%vs Conservative 13.8% | - | 47.6% |
| Saffron Walden Audley | Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2023 Others 45.6%vs Conservative 19.2% | - | 49.6% |
| Saffron Walden Castle | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Others 52.9%vs Conservative 18.3% | - | 45.0% |
| Saffron Walden Shire | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Others 44.1%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 44.2% |
| Stansted North | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 25.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.4%vs Conservative 30.9% | - | 38.3% |
| Stansted South & Birchanger | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 43.0%vs Lib Dem 36.6% | - | 31.5% |
| Stort Valley | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.6%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 39.1% |
| Takeley | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 28.1% | 2023 Others 44.9%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 30.5% |
| Thaxted & the Eastons | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Others 60.2%vs Conservative 23.5% | - | 39.9% |
| Writtle | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Lib Dem 36.3% | - | 42.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North West Essex at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North West Essex at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Alan Haselhurst Saffron Walden MP | 9.7% | 55.5% | 27.4% | 15,242 | 71.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Alan Haselhurst Saffron Walden MP | 11.8% | 57.2% | 10.6% | 24,991 | 71.4%-0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Kemi Badenoch Saffron Walden MP | 20.8% | 61.8% | 14.0% | 24,966 | 73.3%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Kemi Badenoch Saffron Walden MP, pre-review boundary | 13.8% | 61.7% | 19.7% | 23,227 | 72.5% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Kemi Badenoch | 30.8% | 35.6% | 11.1% | 2,610 | 68.2%-4.3 |
North West Essex was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Saffron Walden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like North West Essex
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North West Essex. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.2 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 25.6vs 30.2
- ↑Employed62.0 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied70.2 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.0 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 15.6vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.2 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.0 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.2 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.2 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 25.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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