Horsham
South East · County constituency · Horsham borough
About the Horsham constituency
Horsham is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is John Milne (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 39.0% to 34.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,517 votes on a 70.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 37.7% and the Conservatives on 29.2%, a margin of 8.5 points.
Who lives in Horsham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Horsham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Horsham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Horsham within Horsham
Horsham sits entirely within Horsham Council. Horsham was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Horsham | 100% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billingshurst | LD | LD 33% Ref 28% Con 28% | 47.2% |
| Broadbridge | LD | LD 39% Ref 27% Con 24% | 49.7% |
| Holbrook | LD | LD 47% Ref 25% Con 18% | 50.3% |
| Horsham East | LD | LD 49% Ref 23% Con 17% | 48.1% |
| Horsham Hurst | LD | LD 59% Ref 16% Con 12% | 50.3% |
| Horsham Riverside | LD | LD 49% Ref 22% Con 16% | 43.8% |
| Southwater & Nuthurst | LD | LD 43% Ref 28% Con 21% | 50.6% |
| St. Leonard's Forest | LD | LD 37% Ref 34% Con 19% | 44.5% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2025 | Colgate & Rusper | LD GAIN from Con | LD 30% Con 27% Grn 25% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Denne | Con GAIN from LD | — |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Southwater North | Con GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billingshurst | Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 36.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.4%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 31.9% |
| Broadbridge Heath | Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 32.3% |
| Colgate & Rusper | Conservative 36.9%vs Lib Dem 34.0% | 2023 Conservative 49.9%vs Lib Dem 29.6% | - | 32.5% |
| Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead | Conservative 38.0%vs Lib Dem 35.3% | 2023 Conservative 42.3%vs Lib Dem 42.0% | - | 38.5% |
| Denne | Lib Dem 40.7%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 35.4% |
| Forest | Lib Dem 42.1%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.0%vs Labour 24.5% | - | 41.2% |
| Holbrook East | Lib Dem 38.3%vs Conservative 37.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 33.7% | - | 42.3% |
| Holbrook West | Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 34.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.6%vs Conservative 36.9% | - | 40.0% |
| Itchingfield, Slinfold & Warnham | Conservative 41.1%vs Lib Dem 37.3% | 2023 Conservative 42.8%vs Lib Dem 42.4% | - | 39.1% |
| Nuthurst & Lower Beeding | Lib Dem 41.0%vs Conservative 37.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 38.2% | - | 42.5% |
| Roffey North | Lib Dem 40.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.1%vs Conservative 28.5% | - | 35.3% |
| Roffey South | Lib Dem 38.4%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.6%vs Conservative 29.4% | - | 31.3% |
| Rudgwick | Conservative 44.0%vs Lib Dem 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 55.5%vs Lib Dem 28.4% | - | 38.6% |
| Southwater North | Lib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 37.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 37.8% |
| Southwater South & Shipley | Lib Dem 39.5%vs Conservative 37.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.8%vs Conservative 40.5% | - | 36.1% |
| Trafalgar | Lib Dem 45.0%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.9%vs Conservative 18.9% | - | 42.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Horsham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Horsham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Francis Maude | 7.5% | 52.7% | 32.2% | 11,460 | 72.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jeremy Quin | 11.4% | 57.3% | 11.7% | 24,658 | 72.0%+0.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jeremy Quin | 21.7% | 59.5% | 12.3% | 23,484 | 74.9%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jeremy Quin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.6% | 55.8% | 24.7% | 17,353 | 72.6%-2.3 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | John Milne | 10.8% | 34.4% | 39.0% | 2,517 | 70.1%-2.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Horsham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Horsham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.6 / 62.0vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.6 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.7 / 11.9vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.6 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓No quals11.9 / 11.3vs 18.0
- ↓Social rent11.7 / 11.3vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↓No quals11.9 / 12.1vs 18.0
- ↑Employed62.6 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.6 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.6 / 16.6vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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