Hamble Valley
South East · County constituency
About the Hamble Valley constituency
Hamble Valley is a county constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Eastleigh, Fareham and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Paul Holmes (Conservative), first elected in December 2019.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won Hamble Valley with 36.4% of the vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 27.5%, a majority of 4,802 votes. Turnout was 67.9%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Conservatives on 30.1% and Reform UK on 27.6% in Hamble Valley, a margin of 2.4 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Hamble Valley is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 53.9% voted Leave in 2016). About 35.4% of residents hold a degree, 74.6% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 43 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in Hamble Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hamble Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hamble Valley
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Hamble Valley within Eastleigh and Fareham and 1 other council
Hamble Valley crosses multiple council boundaries: Eastleigh (48%), Fareham (46%), Winchester (7%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council where they were held; for councils not in the 2026 election cycle the most recent available ward result is shown instead. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 48% | View projection › |
| Fareham | 46% | View projection › |
| Winchester | 7% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botley & Hedge End North | LD | LD 42% Ref 24% Con 19% | 41.4% |
| Fareham Sarisbury | Con | Con 50% Ref 20% LD 18% | 47.2% |
| Fareham Titchfield | Con | Con 38% Ref 30% LD 16% | 46.3% |
| Fareham Warsash | Con | Con 51% Ref 23% LD 15% | 49.8% |
| Hamble | LD | LD 42% Ref 30% Con 15% | 42.3% |
| Hedge End & West End South | LD | LD 39% Ref 29% Con 21% | 43.0% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hamble Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hamble Valley at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Mark Hoban Fareham MP | 14.2% | 55.3% | 23.8% | 17,092 | 71.6% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Suella Fernandes Fareham MP | 14.3% | 56.1% | 8.8% | 22,262 | 70.9%-0.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Suella Fernandes Fareham MP | 25.2% | 63.0% | 6.8% | 21,555 | 72.3%+1.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Suella Braverman Fareham MP, pre-review boundary | 13.6% | 62.2% | 21.1% | 23,488 | 74.2% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Paul Holmes | 16.2% | 36.4% | 27.5% | 4,802 | 67.9%-6.3 |
Hamble Valley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Fareham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Hamble Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hamble Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.8 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.8 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.0 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↓No quals12.1 / 11.9vs 18.0
- ↑Employed63.0 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.8 / 11.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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