Hamble Valley
South East · County constituency
About the Hamble Valley constituency
Hamble Valley is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Paul Holmes (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.4% to 27.5% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 4,802 votes on a 67.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.4% and Reform UK on 28.4%, a margin of 0.9 points.
Who lives in Hamble Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hamble Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hamble Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hamble Valley within Eastleigh and Fareham and 1 other council
Hamble Valley crosses council boundaries: Eastleigh (48%), Fareham (46%), Winchester (7%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 48% | View projection › |
| Fareham | 46% | View projection › |
| Winchester | 7% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botley & Hedge End North | LD | LD 42% Ref 24% Con 19% | 41.4% |
| Fareham Sarisbury | Con | Con 50% Ref 20% LD 18% | 47.2% |
| Fareham Titchfield | Con | Con 38% Ref 30% LD 16% | 46.3% |
| Fareham Warsash | Con | Con 51% Ref 23% LD 15% | 49.8% |
| Hamble | LD | LD 42% Ref 30% Con 15% | 42.3% |
| Hedge End & West End South | LD | LD 39% Ref 29% Con 21% | 43.0% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | Hedge End South | LD HOLD | LD 46% Con 25% Ref 19% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botley | Conservative 31.9%vs Lib Dem 31.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.4%vs Reform 25.4% | Conservative→Lib Dem +14.0pp | 43.5% |
| Bursledon & Hound North | Lib Dem 36.0%vs Conservative 31.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.8%vs Reform 28.2% | Lib Dem share +10.8pp | 38.2% |
| Hamble & Netley | Lib Dem 35.9%vs Conservative 31.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.6%vs Reform 29.4% | Lib Dem share +7.7pp | 44.6% |
| Hedge End North | Lib Dem 36.0%vs Conservative 28.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Reform 23.5% | Lib Dem share +8.6pp | 39.5% |
| Hedge End South | Lib Dem 35.4%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.4%vs Reform 27.0% | Lib Dem share +8.0pp | 43.9% |
| Hook-with-Warsash | Conservative 44.8%vs Lib Dem 19.4% | May 2026 Conservative 51.9%vs Reform 22.9% | Conservative share +7.1pp | 48.1% |
| Locks Heath | Conservative 44.3%vs Lib Dem 17.5% | May 2026 Conservative 44.1%vs Reform 24.5% | Conservative share -0.2pp | 47.5% |
| Park Gate | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 21.6% | May 2026 Conservative 47.3%vs Lib Dem 25.0% | Conservative share +10.2pp | 46.1% |
| Sarisbury & Whiteley | Conservative 43.1%vs Lib Dem 19.0% | May 2026 Conservative 53.0%vs Reform 18.4% | Conservative share +9.9pp | 41.2% |
| Titchfield | Conservative 42.7%vs Lib Dem 19.4% | May 2026 Conservative 39.7%vs Reform 27.5% | Conservative share -3.0pp | 46.7% |
| Titchfield Common | Conservative 38.0%vs Lib Dem 20.5% | May 2026 Conservative 44.7%vs Reform 24.4% | Conservative share +6.8pp | 47.6% |
| Whiteley and Shedfield | Lib Dem 35.3%vs Conservative 34.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.7%vs Reform 23.9% | Lib Dem share +4.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hamble Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hamble Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Mark Hoban Fareham MP | 14.2% | 55.3% | 23.8% | 17,092 | 71.6% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Suella Fernandes Fareham MP | 14.3% | 56.1% | 8.8% | 22,262 | 70.9%-0.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Suella Fernandes Fareham MP | 25.2% | 63.0% | 6.8% | 21,555 | 72.3%+1.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Suella Braverman Fareham MP, pre-review boundary | 13.6% | 62.2% | 21.1% | 23,488 | 74.2% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Paul Holmes | 16.2% | 36.4% | 27.5% | 4,802 | 67.9%-6.3 |
Hamble Valley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Fareham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Hamble Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hamble Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.8 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.8 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.0 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↓No quals12.1 / 11.9vs 18.0
- ↑Employed63.0 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.8 / 11.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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