Eastleigh
South East · Borough constituency
About the Eastleigh constituency
Eastleigh is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Liz Jarvis (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 34.4% to 31.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,546 votes on a 66.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 35.4% and Reform UK on 26.1%, a margin of 9.3 points.
Who lives in Eastleigh? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Eastleigh vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Eastleigh
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Eastleigh within Eastleigh and Test Valley
Eastleigh crosses council boundaries: Eastleigh (93%), Test Valley (7%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 93% | View projection › |
| Test Valley | 7% | — |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopstoke & Fair Oak | Independent | Independent 32% Ref 25% LD 23% | 46.9% |
| Chandler's Ford | LD | LD 48% Ref 20% Con 20% | 49.9% |
| Eastleigh North | LD | LD 40% Ref 28% Grn 14% | 38.4% |
| Eastleigh South | LD | LD 41% Ref 28% Grn 13% | 37.2% |
| West End & Horton Heath | Con | Con 32% LD 29% Ref 27% | 45.1% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopstoke | Lib Dem 32.8%vs Conservative 27.7% | May 2026 Others 42.5%vs Reform 21.7% | Lib Dem→Others +26.9pp | 48.2% |
| Chandler's Ford | Lib Dem 35.2%vs Conservative 33.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.7%vs Reform 22.2% | Lib Dem share +13.4pp | 46.0% |
| Eastleigh Central | Lib Dem 32.2%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.2%vs Reform 25.8% | Lib Dem share +7.9pp | 36.2% |
| Eastleigh North | Lib Dem 33.8%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.6%vs Reform 29.0% | Lib Dem share +7.8pp | 39.4% |
| Eastleigh South | Lib Dem 34.4%vs Conservative 25.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Reform 30.4% | Lib Dem share +6.1pp | 33.4% |
| Fair Oak & Horton Heath | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 30.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 25.2%vs Reform 22.0% | Conservative→Lib Dem +6.7pp | 47.1% |
| Hiltingbury | Conservative 38.0%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 19.2% | Conservative→Lib Dem +17.0pp | 51.1% |
| Valley Park | Lib Dem 40.1%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 80.1%vs Conservative 19.9% | - | 39.1% |
| West End North | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.4%vs Reform 32.8% | Lib Dem share +1.8pp | 41.6% |
| West End South | Lib Dem 35.9%vs Conservative 32.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Reform 30.3% | Lib Dem share +7.2pp | 43.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Eastleigh at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Eastleigh at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Chris Huhne | 9.6% | 39.3% | 46.5% | 3,864 | 69.3% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Mims Davies | 12.9% | 42.3% | 25.8% | 9,147 | 69.7%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mims Davies | 20.0% | 50.4% | 25.7% | 14,179 | 70.5%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Holmes 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.7% | 51.9% | 34.4% | 8,641 | 70.8%+0.3 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Liz Jarvis | 15.1% | 31.1% | 34.4% | 1,546 | 66.3%-4.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Eastleigh
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Eastleigh. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.6 / 63.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓No quals13.6 / 13.8vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 68.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.6 / 12.7vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.6 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.6 / 11.9vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.6 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.6 / 64.0vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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