Eastleigh
South East · Borough constituency
About the Eastleigh constituency
Eastleigh is a borough constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Eastleigh, Test Valley and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Liz Jarvis (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Eastleigh with 34.4% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 31.1%, a majority of 1,546 votes. Turnout was 66.3%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 38.9% and Reform UK on 25.1% in Eastleigh, a margin of 13.9 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Eastleigh is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 54.4% voted Leave in 2016). About 34.3% of residents hold a degree, 71.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 42 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 3 times, the Liberal Democrats 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Eastleigh? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Eastleigh vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Eastleigh
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Eastleigh within Eastleigh and Test Valley
Eastleigh crosses multiple council boundaries: Eastleigh (93%), Test Valley (7%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council where they were held; for councils not in the 2026 election cycle the most recent available ward result is shown instead. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 93% | View projection › |
| Test Valley | 7% | — |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopstoke & Fair Oak | Independent | Independent 32% Ref 25% LD 23% | 46.9% |
| Chandler's Ford | LD | LD 48% Ref 20% Con 20% | 49.9% |
| Eastleigh North | LD | LD 40% Ref 28% Grn 14% | 38.4% |
| Eastleigh South | LD | LD 41% Ref 28% Grn 13% | 37.2% |
| West End & Horton Heath | Con | Con 32% LD 29% Ref 27% | 45.1% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Eastleigh at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Eastleigh at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Chris Huhne | 9.6% | 39.3% | 46.5% | 3,864 | 69.3% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Mims Davies | 12.9% | 42.3% | 25.8% | 9,147 | 69.7%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mims Davies | 20.0% | 50.4% | 25.7% | 14,179 | 70.5%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Holmes 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.7% | 51.9% | 34.4% | 8,641 | 70.8%+0.3 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Liz Jarvis | 15.1% | 31.1% | 34.4% | 1,546 | 66.3%-4.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Eastleigh
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Eastleigh. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.6 / 63.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓No quals13.6 / 13.8vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 68.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.6 / 12.7vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.6 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.6 / 11.9vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.6 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.6 / 64.0vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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