North Bedfordshire
East of England · County constituency
About the North Bedfordshire constituency
North Bedfordshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Richard Fuller (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.8% to 28.2% for Labour, a majority of 5,414 votes on a 65.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 30.4% and Reform UK on 28.3%, a margin of 2.1 points.
Who lives in North Bedfordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Bedfordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Bedfordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Bedfordshire within Bedford and Central Bedfordshire
North Bedfordshire crosses council boundaries: Bedford (53%), Central Bedfordshire (47%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bedford | 53% |
| Central Bedfordshire | 47% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Wyboston | Con HOLD | — |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Wyboston | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biddenham | Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 23.0% | 2023 Conservative 44.4%vs Green 42.5% | - | 41.4% |
| Biggleswade East | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Conservative 34.1%vs Independent 32.7% | - | 36.8% |
| Biggleswade West | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Independent 54.4%vs Labour 22.8% | - | 37.3% |
| Brickhill | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 37.7% |
| Bromham | Conservative 46.0%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Labour 19.5% | - | 42.4% |
| Clapham & Oakley | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 24.0% | 2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Lib Dem 35.6% | - | 36.9% |
| Great Barford | Conservative 48.1%vs Labour 22.8% | 2023 Conservative 69.9%vs Green 14.3% | - | 40.6% |
| Great Denham | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Lib Dem 27.0% | - | 34.6% |
| Harrold | Conservative 46.8%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 60.5%vs Lib Dem 14.6% | - | 40.6% |
| Kempston West | Labour 49.7%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Labour 68.6%vs Conservative 21.3% | - | 28.8% |
| Northill | Conservative 42.7%vs Labour 23.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.4%vs Independent 37.9% | - | 39.2% |
| Potton | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Independent 80.0%vs Conservative 10.7% | - | 43.0% |
| Renhold & Ravensden | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Independent 49.6%vs Conservative 34.9% | - | 36.9% |
| Riseley | Conservative 46.4%vs Labour 25.8% | 2023 Conservative 62.1%vs Labour 19.0% | - | 43.4% |
| Sandy | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 27.1% | 2023 Independent 49.9%vs Conservative 26.3% | - | 43.6% |
| Sharnbrook | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 25.0% | 2023 Independent 67.0%vs Conservative 17.9% | - | 44.3% |
| Shortstown | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.7%vs Conservative 36.2% | - | 33.2% |
| Wootton & Kempston Rural | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 40.4% | - | 30.8% |
| Wyboston | Conservative 44.8%vs Labour 24.9% | 2023 Conservative 76.0%vs Lib Dem 13.5% | - | 40.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Bedfordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Bedfordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Alistair Burt North East Bedfordshire MP | 16.1% | 55.8% | 21.7% | 18,942 | 71.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Alistair Burt North East Bedfordshire MP | 15.8% | 59.5% | 5.8% | 25,644 | 70.2%-1.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Alistair Burt North East Bedfordshire MP | 28.5% | 60.9% | 5.8% | 20,862 | 73.4%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Richard Fuller North East Bedfordshire MP, pre-review boundary | 19.1% | 61.1% | 13.2% | 23,631 | 73.6% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Richard Fuller | 28.3% | 38.8% | 10.8% | 5,414 | 65.4%-8.2 |
North Bedfordshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North East Bedfordshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like North Bedfordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Bedfordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.4 / 63.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.4 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓No quals13.7 / 13.8vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.6 / 11.9vs 16.8
- ↑Employed63.4 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.4 / 62.0vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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