Mid Bedfordshire
East of England · County constituency
About the Mid Bedfordshire constituency
Mid Bedfordshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Blake Stephenson (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.1% to 31.4% for Labour, a majority of 1,321 votes on a 65.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.5% and the Conservatives on 26.2%, a margin of 3.3 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Mid Bedfordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Bedfordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Bedfordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Mid Bedfordshire within Central Bedfordshire and Bedford
Mid Bedfordshire crosses council boundaries: Central Bedfordshire (82%), Bedford (18%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Central Bedfordshire | 82% |
| Bedford | 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ampthill | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 30.7% | 2023 Conservative 31.7%vs Independent 30.6% | - | 48.7% |
| Aspley & Woburn | Conservative 31.0%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Independent 90.4%vs Conservative 5.0% | - | 54.9% |
| Barton-le-Clay & Silsoe | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 33.0% | 2023 Independent 40.5%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 37.3% |
| Cranfield & Marston Moretaine | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 33.4% | 2023 Conservative 36.0%vs Independent 29.4% | - | 32.7% |
| Flitwick | Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2023 Independent 39.2%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 46.1% |
| Houghton Conquest & Haynes | Conservative 31.2%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Independent 56.7%vs Conservative 21.1% | - | 30.2% |
| Meppershall & Shillington | Conservative 46.1%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 55.8%vs Labour 17.1% | - | 37.2% |
| Toddington | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 31.2% | 2023 Independent 32.1%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 47.5% |
| Westoning, Flitton & Greenfield | Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 26.0% | 2023 Conservative 54.7%vs Independent 18.0% | - | 39.2% |
| Wixams & Wilstead | Conservative 31.6%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 43.9%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | - | 28.9% |
| Wootton & Kempston Rural | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 40.4% | - | 30.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Bedfordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Bedfordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nadine Dorries | 14.8% | 52.5% | 24.9% | 15,152 | 71.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nadine Dorries | 15.9% | 56.1% | 7.2% | 23,327 | 74.0%+2.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nadine Dorries | 28.4% | 61.7% | 6.0% | 20,983 | 75.0%+1.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nadine Dorries 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 20.5% | 60.5% | 12.5% | 20,509 | 71.5%-3.5 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Blake Stephenson | 31.4% | 34.1% | 8.2% | 1,321 | 65.8%-5.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Mid Bedfordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Bedfordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.8 / 63.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.5 / 12.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.8 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 14.0vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.8 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.8 / 64.0vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.