South Northamptonshire
East Midlands · County constituency
About the South Northamptonshire constituency
South Northamptonshire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Sarah Bool (Conservative), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.7% to 28.9% for Labour, a majority of 3,687 votes on a 68.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.9% and Reform UK on 22.1%, a margin of 11.9 points.
Who lives in South Northamptonshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Northamptonshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Northamptonshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Northamptonshire within West Northamptonshire and North Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire crosses council boundaries: West Northamptonshire (94%), North Northamptonshire (6%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Northamptonshire | 94% |
| North Northamptonshire | 6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brackley | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 27.0% | 2025 Reform 32.6%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 31.7% |
| Bugbrooke | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 29.2% | 2025 Conservative 36.4%vs Reform 33.6%2025 ward: Campion, covering 71% of this ward | - | 38.1% |
| Deanshanger | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 31.9% | 2025 Reform 27.1%vs Conservative 23.7%2025 ward: Deanshanger & Paulerspury, covering 100% of this ward | - | 37.9% |
| Hackleton and Grange Park | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 32.1% | 2025 Conservative 45.8%vs Reform 27.8%2025 ward: Cogenhoe & The Houghtons, covering 38% of this ward | - | 40.7% |
| Irchester | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2025 Conservative 38.8%vs Reform 35.5%2025 ward: Irchester, covering 100% of this ward | - | 34.8% |
| Middleton Cheney | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 25.5% | 2025 Conservative 36.3%vs Reform 29.5% | - | 36.1% |
| Silverstone | Conservative 39.2%vs Labour 27.1% | 2025 Conservative 41.7%vs Reform 30.2%2025 ward: Rural South Northamptonshire, covering 100% of this ward | - | 40.9% |
| Towcester and Roade | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 27.2% | 2025 Lib Dem 34.3%vs Reform 27.8%2025 ward: Towcester, covering 75% of this ward | - | 32.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Northamptonshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Northamptonshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Andrea Leadsom | 17.3% | 55.2% | 21.0% | 20,478 | 73.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Andrea Leadsom | 16.7% | 60.1% | 5.9% | 26,416 | 71.0%-2.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Andrea Leadsom | 27.3% | 62.5% | 5.6% | 22,840 | 75.8%+4.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrea Leadsom 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 20.8% | 63.2% | 11.1% | 23,671 | 72.9%-2.9 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Sarah Bool | 28.9% | 35.7% | 9.3% | 3,687 | 68.6%-4.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Northamptonshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Northamptonshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 9.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 14.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.4 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Employed64.0 / 62.6vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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