East Surrey
South East · County constituency
About the East Surrey constituency
East Surrey is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Claire Coutinho (Conservative), MP since December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 20.4% for Labour, a majority of 7,450 votes on a 67.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 37.7% and Reform UK on 22.9%, a margin of 14.8 points.
Who lives in East Surrey? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Surrey vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Surrey
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
East Surrey within Tandridge and Reigate and Banstead
East Surrey crosses council boundaries: Tandridge (90%), Reigate and Banstead (10%). The whole seat voted in the first election to the new East Surrey Council on 7 May 2026. Those results are not yet matched to this seat's wards, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Tandridge | 90% |
| Reigate and Banstead | 10% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | Hooley, Merstham & Netherne | Grn GAIN from Con | Grn 42% Ref 24% Con 20% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Lingfield & Crowhurst | Local HOLD | Other 51% Ref 27% Con 11% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Westway | LD GAIN from Con | LD 42% Ref 33% Con 16% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Whyteleafe | LD HOLD | LD 45% Ref 27% Con 10% |
| 1 May 2025 | Oxted South | Other HOLD | Other 69% Con 17% Lab 8% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bletchingley & Nutfield | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 18.3% | 2024 Lib Dem 28.9%vs Conservative 19.9% | - | 36.0% |
| Burstow, Horne & Outwood | Conservative 39.8%vs Reform 19.8% | 2024 Others 66.1%vs Labour 14.3% | - | 29.0% |
| Chaldon | Conservative 49.4%vs Lib Dem 17.6% | 2024 Conservative 65.8%vs Lib Dem 20.2% | - | 40.0% |
| Dormansland & Felbridge | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 21.9% | 2024 Conservative 35.0%vs Others 29.2% | - | 37.0% |
| Godstone | Conservative 34.4%vs Reform 20.9% | 2024 Others 84.1%vs Conservative 10.3% | - | 32.0% |
| Harestone | Conservative 38.4%vs Lib Dem 23.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 36.8% | - | 39.0% |
| Hooley, Merstham & Netherne | Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2024 Green 38.4%vs Conservative 24.1% | - | 32.6% |
| Limpsfield | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 20.6% | 2024 Others 84.6%vs Conservative 10.7% | - | 45.0% |
| Lingfield & Crowhurst | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 21.7% | 2024 Others 45.1%vs Labour 21.7% | - | 36.0% |
| Oxted North | Conservative 33.7%vs Reform 21.9% | 2024 Others 82.3%vs Conservative 8.7% | - | 44.0% |
| Oxted South | Conservative 31.0%vs Labour 24.5% | 2024 Others 71.6%vs Labour 17.2% | - | 36.0% |
| Portley & Queens Park | Conservative 35.6%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | 2024 Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 25.2% | - | 35.0% |
| Tatsfield & Titsey | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 18.2% | 2024 Independent 70.0%vs Conservative 21.4% | - | 40.0% |
| Valley | Lib Dem 30.3%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 63.2%vs Others 15.7% | - | 33.0% |
| Warlingham East & Chelsham & Farleigh | Conservative 34.5%vs Lib Dem 24.8% | 2024 Independent 36.6%vs Conservative 27.4% | - | 38.0% |
| Warlingham West | Conservative 45.4%vs Lib Dem 18.3% | 2024 Conservative 51.7%vs Lib Dem 29.0% | - | 37.0% |
| Westway | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 22.4% | 2024 Conservative 35.0%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | - | 28.0% |
| Whyteleafe | Conservative 31.3%vs Lib Dem 22.5% | 2024 Others 43.9%vs Lib Dem 32.3% | - | 30.0% |
| Woldingham | Conservative 45.1%vs Labour 16.6% | 2024 Independent 70.8%vs Conservative 17.8% | - | 42.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Surrey at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Surrey at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Sam Gyimah | 9.0% | 56.7% | 25.9% | 16,874 | 71.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Sam Gyimah | 11.8% | 57.4% | 9.2% | 22,658 | 70.4%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Sam Gyimah | 19.2% | 59.6% | 10.5% | 23,914 | 72.2%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Claire Coutinho 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 13.2% | 60.3% | 20.4% | 20,565 | 70.4%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Claire Coutinho | 20.4% | 35.6% | 18.0% | 7,450 | 67.1%-3.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like East Surrey
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Surrey. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.5 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓No quals13.8 / 13.7vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied73.5 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 24.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.5 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↓No quals13.8 / 13.6vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied73.5 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.0 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.5 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 25.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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