Warrington South
North West · County constituency · Warrington borough
About the Warrington South constituency
Warrington South is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Sarah Hall (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.7% to 23.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,340 votes on a 63.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.7% and Reform UK on 24.6%, a margin of 19.1 points.
Who lives in Warrington South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Warrington South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Warrington South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Warrington South within Warrington
Warrington South sits entirely within Warrington Council. Warrington was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Warrington | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2025 | Bewsey & Whitecross | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 44% Lab 37% LD 13% |
| 1 May 2025 | Great Sankey North and Whittle Hall | Lab HOLD | Lab 28% Ref 27% Other 23% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appleton | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 59.0%vs Conservative 35.3% | - | 39.0% |
| Bewsey and Whitecross | Labour 50.8%vs Reform 18.4% | 2024 Labour 68.5%vs Conservative 22.9% | - | 21.0% |
| Chapelford and Old Hall | Labour 51.6%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2024 Labour 56.1%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 32.0% |
| Grappenhall | Labour 37.9%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2024 Lib Dem 55.2%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 38.0% |
| Great Sankey North and Whittle Hall | Labour 53.4%vs Conservative 21.8% | 2024 Labour 53.9%vs Conservative 22.7% | - | 36.0% |
| Great Sankey South | Labour 52.1%vs Conservative 20.0% | 2024 Labour 66.3%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 28.0% |
| Latchford East | Labour 51.5%vs Reform 18.0% | 2024 Labour 68.6%vs Conservative 21.8% | - | 21.0% |
| Latchford West | Labour 48.4%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2024 Labour 57.9%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | 30.0% |
| Lymm North and Thelwall | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 66.0%vs Conservative 24.5% | - | 37.0% |
| Penketh and Cuerdley | Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2024 Independent 48.4%vs Labour 35.3% | - | 36.0% |
| Stockton Heath | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 58.0%vs Conservative 25.4% | - | 39.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Warrington South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Warrington South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | David Mowat | 33.0% | 35.8% | 27.5% | 1,553 | 69.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Mowat | 39.1% | 43.7% | 5.6% | 2,750 | 70.0%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Faisal Rashid | 48.4% | 44.3% | 5.4% | 2,549 | 72.4%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | — | 44.5% | 44.4% | 8.2% | 65 | 70.6%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Sarah Hall | 46.7% | 23.9% | 7.7% | 11,340 | 63.4%-7.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Warrington South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Warrington South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 68.5vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.5 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 12.7vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 11.7vs 16.8
- ↑Employed61.5 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.5 / 62.0vs 57.3
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 14.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 12.6vs 16.8
- ↑Employed61.5 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.5 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 13.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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