Ely and East Cambridgeshire
East of England · County constituency
About the Ely and East Cambridgeshire constituency
Ely and East Cambridgeshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Charlotte Cane (Liberal Democrat), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 32.7% to 31.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 495 votes on a 66.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 27.4% and the Liberal Democrats on 24.1%, a margin of 3.3 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Ely and East Cambridgeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ely and East Cambridgeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ely and East Cambridgeshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ely and East Cambridgeshire within East Cambridgeshire and South Cambridgeshire
Ely and East Cambridgeshire crosses council boundaries: East Cambridgeshire (82%), South Cambridgeshire (18%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| East Cambridgeshire | 82% | - |
| South Cambridgeshire | 18% | 2026 result › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Stretham | LD HOLD | LD 37% Con 29% Ref 24% |
| 23 Apr 2024 | Ely West | LD HOLD | LD 48% Con 32% Lab 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottisham | Conservative 35.3%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 33.7% | - | 43.2% |
| Burwell | Conservative 37.4%vs Lib Dem 28.5% | 2023 Conservative 49.4%vs Lib Dem 26.4% | - | 34.7% |
| Cottenham | Lib Dem 39.5%vs Conservative 27.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.6%vs Green 19.3% | Lib Dem share +1.1pp | 47.6% |
| Downham Villages | Conservative 36.0%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 57.4%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | - | 43.0% |
| Ely East | Lib Dem 34.7%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.3%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 41.7% |
| Ely North | Lib Dem 37.1%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.1%vs Conservative 29.1% | - | 41.0% |
| Ely West | Lib Dem 35.3%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 51.9% |
| Fordham & Isleham | Conservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 57.9%vs Lib Dem 24.9% | - | 29.9% |
| Haddenham | Lib Dem 38.0%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.6%vs Conservative 41.4% | - | 38.7% |
| Littleport | Conservative 30.6%vs Lib Dem 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 47.8%vs Labour 33.5% | - | 22.1% |
| Milton & Waterbeach | Lib Dem 34.6%vs Conservative 26.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 42.8%vs Reform 16.5% | Lib Dem share +8.2pp | 42.6% |
| Soham North | Conservative 31.8%vs Lib Dem 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 41.5%vs Lib Dem 30.8% | - | 31.4% |
| Soham South | Conservative 31.9%vs Lib Dem 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Lib Dem 29.2% | - | 25.9% |
| Stretham | Conservative 34.0%vs Lib Dem 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.0%vs Conservative 38.2% | - | 47.0% |
| Sutton | Lib Dem 40.9%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 77.3%vs Conservative 15.1% | - | 39.8% |
| Woodditton | Conservative 45.7%vs Lib Dem 25.6% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Lib Dem 23.8% | - | 33.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ely and East Cambridgeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ely and East Cambridgeshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | James Paice South East Cambridgeshire MP | 7.6% | 48.0% | 37.6% | 5,946 | 69.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Lucy Frazer South East Cambridgeshire MP | 15.1% | 48.5% | 20.2% | 16,837 | 70.4%+1.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Lucy Frazer South East Cambridgeshire MP | 27.7% | 53.3% | 19.0% | 16,158 | 73.2%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Lucy Frazer South East Cambridgeshire MP, pre-review boundary | 14.4% | 54.0% | 29.3% | 13,449 | 71.4% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Charlotte Cane | 17.5% | 31.8% | 32.7% | 495 | 66.2%-5.2 |
Ely and East Cambridgeshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South East Cambridgeshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Ely and East Cambridgeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ely and East Cambridgeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.6 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Employed62.9 / 62.0vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 68.5vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.9 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3525.6 / 27.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.9 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3525.6 / 27.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.9 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.9 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3525.6 / 26.6vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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