Chippenham
South West · County constituency · Wiltshire
About the Chippenham constituency
Chippenham is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sarah Gibson (Liberal Democrat), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 45.5% to 29.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,138 votes on a 66.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 31.7% and the Conservatives on 23.3%, a margin of 8.4 points.
Who lives in Chippenham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chippenham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chippenham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chippenham within Wiltshire
Chippenham sits entirely within Wiltshire Council. Wiltshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wiltshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calne Central | Lib Dem 55.1%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 42.7%vs Reform 33.4% | - | 33.0% |
| Calne Chilvester & Abberd | Lib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2025 Reform 37.8%vs Lib Dem 37.0% | - | 27.0% |
| Calne North | Lib Dem 45.7%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2025 Reform 37.1%vs Lib Dem 33.3% | - | 26.0% |
| Calne Rural | Conservative 39.2%vs Lib Dem 37.8% | 2025 Conservative 47.1%vs Reform 20.6% | - | 40.0% |
| Chippenham Cepen Park & Derriads | Lib Dem 39.5%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 32.7% | - | 37.0% |
| Chippenham Cepen Park & Hunters Moon | Lib Dem 37.9%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 35.0% |
| Chippenham Hardenhuish | Lib Dem 48.5%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2025 Lib Dem 55.2%vs Conservative 20.4% | - | 30.0% |
| Chippenham Hardens & Central | Lib Dem 50.1%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2025 Lib Dem 62.1%vs Reform 17.8% | - | 35.0% |
| Chippenham Lowden & Rowden | Lib Dem 46.0%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2025 Lib Dem 42.2%vs Independent 29.1% | - | 36.0% |
| Chippenham Monkton | Lib Dem 41.3%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2025 Independent 63.4%vs Lib Dem 15.4% | - | 44.0% |
| Chippenham Pewsham | Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2025 Lib Dem 54.3%vs Reform 28.3% | - | 36.0% |
| Chippenham Sheldon | Lib Dem 43.0%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2025 Lib Dem 30.1%vs Reform 23.9% | - | 28.0% |
| Corsham Ladbrook | Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2025 Lib Dem 57.6%vs Reform 22.0% | - | 34.0% |
| Corsham Pickwick | Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 61.7%vs Reform 25.2% | - | 35.0% |
| Corsham Without | Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 55.0%vs Conservative 26.5% | - | 40.0% |
| Lyneham | Lib Dem 37.5%vs Conservative 37.3% | 2025 Conservative 56.1%vs Reform 24.9% | - | 34.0% |
| Royal Wootton Bassett East | Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | 2025 Lib Dem 36.7%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 38.0% |
| Royal Wootton Bassett North | Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 39.2%vs Conservative 28.3% | - | 31.0% |
| Royal Wootton Bassett South & West | Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2025 Lib Dem 43.5%vs Conservative 31.7% | - | 36.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chippenham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chippenham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Duncan Hames | 6.9% | 41.0% | 45.8% | 2,470 | 72.6% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Michelle Donelan | 8.2% | 47.6% | 29.4% | 10,076 | 74.7%+2.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michelle Donelan | 19.7% | 54.7% | 25.6% | 16,630 | 74.8%+0.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Michelle Donelan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.7% | 56.4% | 30.3% | 13,200 | 70.5%-4.3 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Sarah Gibson | 7.9% | 29.1% | 45.5% | 8,138 | 66.8%-3.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Chippenham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chippenham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 67.4vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.9 / 60.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 68.5vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.9 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.9 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.9 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.9 / 62.0vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.