Constituency profile

Thirsk and Malton

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · North Yorkshire borough

Kevin Hollinrake MP
Sitting MP

Kevin Hollinrake

Conservative

First elected May 2015Shadow: Shadow Minister without Portfolio

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, North Yorkshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
56.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +4.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +11.1pp
vs Reform UK 27.6%
NorthernLeave-leaning

About the Thirsk and Malton constituency

Thirsk and Malton is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Kevin Hollinrake (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 39.2% to 24.1% for Labour, a majority of 7,550 votes on a 63.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 38.6% and Reform UK on 27.6%, a margin of 11.1 points.

Who lives in Thirsk and Malton? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
56.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
66.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
32.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
32.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
22.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Thirsk and Malton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 7,550 votes (15.1pp) · turnout 63.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Thirsk and Malton

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Thirsk and Malton within North Yorkshire

Thirsk and Malton sits entirely within North Yorkshire Council. North Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Yorkshire
55 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Aiskew & LeemingConservative 35.8%vs Labour 28.7%2022 Conservative 52.2%vs Green 47.8%--
Amotherby & AmpleforthConservative 37.6%vs Labour 24.6%2022 Lib Dem 50.9%vs Conservative 49.1%--
BedaleConservative 43.5%vs Labour 19.2%2022 Conservative 63.4%vs Green 19.5%-23.8%
FileyConservative 33.3%vs Labour 25.5%2022 Independent 43.3%vs Conservative 35.4%-35.1%
Helmsley & SinningtonConservative 44.7%vs Labour 25.4%2022 Conservative 54.5%vs Independent 28.1%--
Hillside & RaskelfConservative 42.3%vs Labour 23.9%2022 Conservative 48.7%vs Independent 22.0%--
Hunmanby & SherburnConservative 38.6%vs Labour 23.9%2022 Independent 46.4%vs Conservative 34.3%--
Kirkbymoorside & DalesConservative 39.2%vs Labour 20.9%2022 Conservative 30.8%vs Independent 25.7%--
MaltonConservative 33.3%vs Labour 25.6%2022 Independent 52.1%vs Conservative 29.4%-18.8%
NortonConservative 38.0%vs Labour 25.4%2022 Conservative 63.4%vs Lib Dem 36.6%-29.6%
PickeringConservative 41.3%vs Labour 21.2%2022 Others 41.8%vs Conservative 37.0%-27.9%
Sheriff Hutton & DerwentConservative 34.6%vs Labour 29.9%2022 Independent 35.6%vs Conservative 35.2%--
Sowerby & TopcliffeConservative 39.6%vs Labour 26.6%2022 Green 51.9%vs Conservative 48.1%--
ThirskConservative 42.5%vs Labour 22.6%2022 Conservative 65.0%vs Labour 25.4%-26.4%
Thornton Dale & WoldsConservative 44.8%vs Labour 19.4%2022 Conservative 52.7%vs Others 20.8%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Thirsk and Malton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Thirsk and Malton at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdAnne McIntosh13.6%52.9%23.3%6.6% UKIP-3.7%11,28149.9%
2015Con holdKevin Hollinrake15.4%52.6%9.0%14.9% UKIP4.6%3.5%19,45667.6%+17.7
2017Con holdKevin Hollinrake26.1%60.0%6.9%2.7% UKIP2.0%2.3%19,00171.1%+3.5
2019notionalConservative winnerKevin Hollinrake 2019 MP, pre-review boundary17.8%62.5%12.5%-4.5%2.7%23,33768.1%-3.0
2024Con holdKevin Hollinrake24.1%39.2%10.8%18.0% Ref6.0%1.9%7,55063.5%-4.6

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Thirsk and Malton

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Thirsk and Malton. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.