Constituency profile

St Ives

South West · County constituency

Andrew George MP
Sitting MP

Andrew George

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LDCCCLD
Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 2/5
EU referendum 2016
54.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +2.9pp above mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +12.1pp
vs Reform UK 27.6%
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the St Ives constituency

St Ives is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Andrew George (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 52.0% to 23.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 13,786 votes on a 68.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 39.7% and Reform UK on 27.6%, a margin of 12.1 points.

Who lives in St Ives? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
54.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
32.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
21.4%
UK average ~28%

How did St Ives vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 13,786 votes (28.6pp) · turnout 68.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of St Ives

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

St Ives within Cornwall

St Ives sits almost entirely within Cornwall Council. Cornwall was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Cornwall
51 LSOAs
98%
Isles of Scilly
1 LSOAs
2%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Crowan, Sithney & WendronLib Dem 48.4%vs Conservative 23.9%2021 Others 62.9%vs Conservative 37.1%--
Helston NorthLib Dem 37.3%vs Conservative 27.2%2021 Independent 34.6%vs Green 32.1%-54.5%
Helston South & MeneageLib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 28.8%2021 Conservative 39.3%vs Independent 28.4%--
Land's EndLib Dem 56.8%vs Conservative 19.2%2021 Independent 40.2%vs Lib Dem 26.9%--
Long Rock, Marazion & St ErthLib Dem 57.0%vs Conservative 22.3%2021 Conservative 36.4%vs Lib Dem 23.4%--
Ludgvan, Madron, Gulval & HeamoorLib Dem 63.8%vs Conservative 19.2%2021 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 33.0%--
Mousehole, Newlyn & St BuryanLib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 22.4%2021 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 41.8%--
Mullion & St KeverneLib Dem 44.0%vs Conservative 29.7%2021 Conservative 39.5%vs Independent 35.6%--
Penzance EastLib Dem 43.6%vs Conservative 19.6%2021 Independent 43.9%vs Labour 25.4%-57.6%
Penzance PromenadeLib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 25.1%2021 Independent 46.9%vs Conservative 23.3%-70.3%
Porthleven, Breage & GermoeLib Dem 48.2%vs Conservative 26.9%2021 Conservative 34.6%vs Independent 30.2%--
St Ives East, Lelant & Carbis BayLib Dem 56.7%vs Conservative 25.6%2021 Conservative 46.4%vs Lib Dem 35.1%--
St Ives West & TowednackLib Dem 63.0%vs Conservative 17.6%2021 Independent 45.4%vs Conservative 23.6%--
St Mary'sLib Dem 48.6%vs Conservative 19.1%2021 Independent 100.0%uncontested-41.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for St Ives at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won St Ives at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdAndrew George8.2%39.0%42.7%5.6% UKIP2.8%1.7%1,71968.6%
2015Con gain from LDDerek Thomas9.3%38.3%33.2%11.8% UKIP6.3%1.1%2,46973.7%+5.1
2017Con holdDerek Thomas14.2%43.2%42.6%---31276.3%+2.6
2019notionalConservative winnerDerek Thomas 2019 MP, pre-review boundary9.1%49.0%39.3%-1.8%0.8%5,22776.9%+0.6
2024LD gain from ConAndrew George5.8%23.4%52.0%13.5% Ref3.7%1.6%13,78668.7%-8.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like St Ives

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to St Ives. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.