North Northumberland
North East · County constituency · Northumberland borough
About the North Northumberland constituency
North Northumberland is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is David Smith (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.6% to 26.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,067 votes on a 65.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 26.8% and Labour on 26.1%, a margin of 0.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North Northumberland? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Northumberland vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Northumberland
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Northumberland within Northumberland
North Northumberland sits entirely within Northumberland Council. Northumberland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Northumberland | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alnwick | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2021 Conservative 47.1%vs Green 26.7% | - | 57.5% |
| Amble | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 20.9% | 2021 Labour 51.3%vs Conservative 43.6% | - | 31.0% |
| Amble West with Warkworth | Labour 31.3%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2021 Conservative 51.5%vs Lib Dem 29.4% | - | 42.5% |
| Bamburgh | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2021 Conservative 71.2%vs Labour 15.7% | - | 42.9% |
| Berwick East | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 17.9% | 2021 Independent 75.2%vs Conservative 13.4% | - | 35.6% |
| Berwick North | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2021 Conservative 34.6%vs Independent 33.0% | - | 41.0% |
| Berwick West with Ord | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2021 Lib Dem 40.0%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | 31.9% |
| Druridge Bay | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2021 Labour 59.2%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 34.7% |
| Longhoughton | Conservative 29.9%vs Labour 26.4% | 2021 Conservative 59.9%vs Lib Dem 31.3% | - | 47.2% |
| Lynemouth | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 19.9% | 2021 Labour 57.3%vs Conservative 37.8% | - | 37.9% |
| Morpeth Kirkhill | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2021 Conservative 56.6%vs Labour 19.6% | - | 45.2% |
| Morpeth North | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2021 Conservative 53.9%vs Labour 29.9% | - | 53.6% |
| Morpeth Stobhill | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2021 Conservative 47.5%vs Lib Dem 27.2% | - | 49.1% |
| Norham and Islandshires | Labour 28.8%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2021 Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 32.5% | - | 45.4% |
| Pegswood | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2021 Conservative 54.2%vs Labour 41.6% | - | 43.2% |
| Rothbury | Labour 28.3%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2021 Independent 79.7%vs Conservative 8.1% | - | 60.8% |
| Shilbottle | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 33.4% | 2021 Conservative 54.3%vs Labour 20.6% | - | 43.9% |
| Wooler | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 28.0% | 2021 Conservative 76.8%vs Labour 8.1% | - | 45.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Northumberland at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Northumberland at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Alan Beith Berwick-upon-Tweed MP | 13.2% | 36.7% | 43.7% | 2,690 | 67.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Con gain from LD | Anne-Marie Trevelyan Berwick-upon-Tweed MP | 14.9% | 41.1% | 28.9% | 4,914 | 71.0%+3.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Anne-Marie Trevelyan Berwick-upon-Tweed MP | 24.6% | 52.5% | 21.1% | 11,781 | 71.8%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Anne-Marie Trevelyan Berwick-upon-Tweed MP, pre-review boundary | 23.1% | 55.9% | 16.1% | 17,306 | 72.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | David Smith | 36.6% | 26.2% | 10.6% | 5,067 | 65.8%-6.9 |
North Northumberland was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Berwick-upon-Tweed (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like North Northumberland
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Northumberland. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+33.4 / 32.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↓Employed49.9 / 51.7vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+33.4 / 33.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↓Employed49.9 / 53.6vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+33.4 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed49.9 / 51.3vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 24.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.4 / 34.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↓Employed49.9 / 51.2vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+33.4 / 35.0vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 20.1vs 30.2
- ↓Employed49.9 / 50.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.