Constituency profile

North Northumberland

North East · County constituency · Northumberland borough

David Smith MP
Sitting MP

David Smith

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North East
County constituency, Northumberland council
Last 5 GE winners
LDCCCL
Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
55.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +3.9pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +0.7pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
NorthernLeave-leaning

About the North Northumberland constituency

North Northumberland is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is David Smith (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.6% to 26.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,067 votes on a 65.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 26.8% and Labour on 26.1%, a margin of 0.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in North Northumberland? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
55.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
34.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
52.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
33.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
20.2%
UK average ~28%

How did North Northumberland vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 5,067 votes (10.4pp) · turnout 65.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of North Northumberland

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

North Northumberland within Northumberland

North Northumberland sits entirely within Northumberland Council. Northumberland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Northumberland
55 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AlnwickLabour 36.0%vs Conservative 28.9%2021 Conservative 47.1%vs Green 26.7%-57.5%
AmbleLabour 44.2%vs Conservative 20.9%2021 Labour 51.3%vs Conservative 43.6%-31.0%
Amble West with WarkworthLabour 31.3%vs Conservative 28.4%2021 Conservative 51.5%vs Lib Dem 29.4%-42.5%
BamburghLabour 33.2%vs Conservative 30.5%2021 Conservative 71.2%vs Labour 15.7%-42.9%
Berwick EastLabour 42.1%vs Conservative 17.9%2021 Independent 75.2%vs Conservative 13.4%-35.6%
Berwick NorthLabour 34.8%vs Conservative 22.4%2021 Conservative 34.6%vs Independent 33.0%-41.0%
Berwick West with OrdLabour 35.2%vs Conservative 22.9%2021 Lib Dem 40.0%vs Conservative 39.9%-31.9%
Druridge BayLabour 47.7%vs Conservative 19.2%2021 Labour 59.2%vs Conservative 32.0%-34.7%
LonghoughtonConservative 29.9%vs Labour 26.4%2021 Conservative 59.9%vs Lib Dem 31.3%-47.2%
LynemouthLabour 46.7%vs Conservative 19.9%2021 Labour 57.3%vs Conservative 37.8%-37.9%
Morpeth KirkhillLabour 34.9%vs Conservative 27.6%2021 Conservative 56.6%vs Labour 19.6%-45.2%
Morpeth NorthLabour 38.8%vs Conservative 26.1%2021 Conservative 53.9%vs Labour 29.9%-53.6%
Morpeth StobhillLabour 35.1%vs Conservative 26.1%2021 Conservative 47.5%vs Lib Dem 27.2%-49.1%
Norham and IslandshiresLabour 28.8%vs Conservative 26.9%2021 Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 32.5%-45.4%
PegswoodLabour 46.0%vs Conservative 25.7%2021 Conservative 54.2%vs Labour 41.6%-43.2%
RothburyLabour 28.3%vs Conservative 22.1%2021 Independent 79.7%vs Conservative 8.1%-60.8%
ShilbottleLabour 34.3%vs Conservative 33.4%2021 Conservative 54.3%vs Labour 20.6%-43.9%
WoolerConservative 36.5%vs Labour 28.0%2021 Conservative 76.8%vs Labour 8.1%-45.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for North Northumberland at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won North Northumberland at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLD holdAlan Beith Berwick-upon-Tweed MP13.2%36.7%43.7%3.2% UKIP-3.2%2,69067.9%
2015predecessorCon gain from LDAnne-Marie Trevelyan Berwick-upon-Tweed MP14.9%41.1%28.9%11.2% UKIP3.7%0.2%4,91471.0%+3.1
2017predecessorCon holdAnne-Marie Trevelyan Berwick-upon-Tweed MP24.6%52.5%21.1%-1.9%-11,78171.8%+0.8
2019notionalConservative winnerAnne-Marie Trevelyan Berwick-upon-Tweed MP, pre-review boundary23.1%55.9%16.1%-3.4%1.5%17,30672.7%
2024Lab gain from ConDavid Smith36.6%26.2%10.6%15.7% Ref3.6%7.4%5,06765.8%-6.9

North Northumberland was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Berwick-upon-Tweed (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like North Northumberland

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Northumberland. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.