Constituency profile

South Devon

South West · County constituency

Caroline Voaden MP
Sitting MP

Caroline Voaden

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCLD
Conservative 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5
EU referendum 2016
57.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +5.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +8.9pp
vs Reform UK 29.1%
SouthernLeave-leaning

About the South Devon constituency

South Devon is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Caroline Voaden (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 46.0% to 31.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,127 votes on a 67.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 38.0% and Reform UK on 29.1%, a margin of 8.9 points.

Who lives in South Devon? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
57.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
34.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
69.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
29.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
52.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
35.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
20.1%
UK average ~28%

How did South Devon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 7,127 votes (14.6pp) · turnout 67.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of South Devon

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

South Devon within South Hams and Torbay

South Devon crosses council boundaries: South Hams (56%), Torbay (44%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
South Hams
30 LSOAs
56%
Torbay
24 LSOAs
44%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Allington & StreteLib Dem 51.3%vs Conservative 31.1%2023 Lib Dem 55.7%vs Conservative 36.5%-47.3%
CharterlandsLib Dem 45.5%vs Conservative 34.0%2023 Conservative 50.7%vs Lib Dem 49.3%-42.2%
Churston with GalmptonConservative 40.4%vs Lib Dem 37.1%2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Lib Dem 18.5%-46.4%
Collaton St MaryLib Dem 40.4%vs Conservative 34.3%2023 Conservative 45.2%vs Lib Dem 31.3%-29.7%
Dartington & StavertonLib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 27.3%2023 Green 72.3%vs Conservative 15.1%-45.5%
Dartmouth & East DartLib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 33.6%2023 Conservative 52.2%vs Labour 22.2%-58.9%
Furzeham with SummercombeConservative 36.6%vs Lib Dem 35.4%2023 Conservative 44.0%vs Independent 31.6%-32.8%
King's AshLib Dem 42.2%vs Conservative 31.1%2023 Conservative 46.4%vs Lib Dem 34.4%-27.7%
KingsbridgeLib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 27.4%2023 Lib Dem 67.7%vs Conservative 32.3%-33.9%
Loddiswell & Aveton GiffordLib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 28.0%2023 Lib Dem 58.2%vs Conservative 31.1%-38.6%
Marldon & LittlehempstonLib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 33.5%2023 Conservative 44.6%vs Lib Dem 33.0%-34.2%
Salcombe & ThurlestoneLib Dem 39.4%vs Conservative 36.9%2023 Independent 49.8%vs Conservative 35.1%-38.9%
South BrentLib Dem 52.7%vs Conservative 29.6%2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 32.3%-52.6%
St Peter's with St Mary'sLib Dem 38.0%vs Conservative 33.9%2023 Conservative 48.9%vs Lib Dem 32.5%-29.0%
StokenhamLib Dem 60.6%vs Conservative 23.7%2023 Lib Dem 73.9%vs Conservative 20.0%-44.5%
TotnesLib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 21.5%2023 Green 39.5%vs Lib Dem 38.7%-46.2%
West DartLib Dem 55.0%vs Conservative 26.6%2023 Lib Dem 65.9%vs Conservative 34.1%-52.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for South Devon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won South Devon at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdSarah Wollaston Totnes MP7.4%45.9%35.6%6.0% UKIP2.5%2.7%4,92770.4%
2015predecessorCon holdSarah Wollaston Totnes MP12.7%53.0%9.9%14.1% UKIP10.3%-18,28568.6%-1.8
2017predecessorCon holdSarah Wollaston Totnes MP26.8%53.7%12.9%2.5% UKIP4.2%-13,47772.9%+4.3
2019notionalConservative winnerAnthony Mangnall Totnes MP, pre-review boundary17.0%53.6%28.2%-0.2%1.0%13,71975.6%
2024LD gain from ConCaroline Voaden6.3%31.5%46.0%13.0% Ref3.1%0.3%7,12767.8%-7.8

South Devon was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Totnes (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like South Devon

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Devon. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.