North Herefordshire
West Midlands · County constituency · Herefordshire, County of borough
About the North Herefordshire constituency
North Herefordshire is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dr Ellie Chowns (Green Party), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Greens won with 43.2% to 31.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,894 votes on a 69.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Greens on 41.0% and the Conservatives on 28.9%, a margin of 12.1 points.
Who lives in North Herefordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Herefordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Herefordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Herefordshire within Herefordshire, County of
North Herefordshire sits entirely within Herefordshire, County of Council. Herefordshire, County of was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Herefordshire, County of | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrow | Conservative 42.8%vs Green 33.7% | 2023 Conservative 72.8%vs Lib Dem 13.9% | - | 44.0% |
| Backbury | Green 41.0%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 35.2%vs Lib Dem 34.4% | - | 44.2% |
| Bircher | Conservative 36.7%vs Green 35.8% | 2023 Conservative 49.2%vs Independent 33.7% | - | 47.2% |
| Bishops Frome & Cradley | Green 55.0%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2023 Green 68.9%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 43.6% |
| Bromyard Bringsty | Green 39.4%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2023 Conservative 47.4%vs Green 31.2% | - | 38.9% |
| Bromyard West | Green 44.6%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Independent 62.2%vs Conservative 17.5% | - | 27.3% |
| Castle | Green 40.1%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2023 Independent 54.6%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 47.2% |
| Credenhill | Green 42.4%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Independent 51.4%vs Conservative 33.6% | - | 36.0% |
| Hagley | Green 41.3%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Independent 51.0%vs Conservative 30.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Hampton | Green 39.1%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 44.2%vs Independent 34.1% | - | 42.6% |
| Holmer | Green 41.6%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Independent 37.9%vs Conservative 33.4% | - | 32.7% |
| Hope End | Green 50.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Green 59.5%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 48.1% |
| Kington | Green 46.6%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.5%vs Green 30.3% | - | 39.1% |
| Ledbury North | Green 42.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Others 44.0%vs Independent 24.0% | - | 36.8% |
| Ledbury South | Green 47.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Green 38.6%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 38.1% |
| Ledbury West | Green 50.4%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2023 Green 46.1%vs Conservative 23.3% | - | 34.4% |
| Leominster East | Green 50.6%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2023 Green 50.0%vs Conservative 34.9% | - | 30.1% |
| Leominster North & Rural | Green 39.8%vs Conservative 34.4% | 2023 Conservative 49.0%vs Green 42.7% | - | 34.6% |
| Leominster South | Green 54.0%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Green 45.0%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 31.6% |
| Leominster West | Green 50.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Green 35.7% | - | 34.2% |
| Mortimer | Conservative 38.8%vs Green 36.3% | 2023 Conservative 54.8%vs Lib Dem 24.0% | - | 38.0% |
| Old Gore | Green 39.5%vs Conservative 35.6% | 2023 Conservative 44.4%vs Independent 31.5% | - | 46.5% |
| Queenswood | Green 41.8%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Independent 56.2%vs Conservative 26.1% | - | 39.9% |
| Sutton Walls | Green 37.4%vs Conservative 36.7% | 2023 Conservative 45.8%vs Green 18.7% | - | 40.3% |
| Three Crosses | Green 38.5%vs Conservative 38.0% | 2023 Conservative 55.9%vs Green 33.8% | - | 46.9% |
| Weobley | Green 42.3%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 38.9%vs Independent 34.9% | - | 38.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Herefordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Herefordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Bill Wiggin | 7.1% | 51.8% | 31.0% | 9,887 | 71.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Bill Wiggin | 11.4% | 55.6% | 12.0% | 19,996 | 70.7%-0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Bill Wiggin | 18.9% | 62.0% | 11.7% | 21,602 | 74.1%+3.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Bill Wiggin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.2% | 62.5% | 13.5% | 25,719 | 76.8%+2.7 |
| 2024 | Green gain from Con | Ellie Chowns | 6.4% | 31.5% | 2.9% | 5,894 | 69.2%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North Herefordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Herefordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+33.6 / 34.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 20.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 69.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.6 / 35.0vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 20.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.6 / 32.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 22.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 66.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.6 / 32.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 20.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.6 / 33.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Leave58.0 / 57.6vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.