Bridgwater
South West · County constituency · Somerset borough
About the Bridgwater constituency
Bridgwater is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sir Ashley Fox (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.6% to 27.2% for Labour, a majority of 1,349 votes on a 56.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.0% and the Conservatives on 25.6%, a margin of 12.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Bridgwater? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bridgwater vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bridgwater
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bridgwater within Somerset
Bridgwater sits entirely within Somerset Council. Somerset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Somerset | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | Lib Dem 34.1%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2022 Conservative 56.8%vs Lib Dem 43.2% | - | 37.3% |
| Bridgwater East & Bawdrip | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 25.9% | 2022 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 24.1% | - | 49.9% |
| Bridgwater North & Central | Labour 34.5%vs Reform 24.2% | 2022 Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 17.8% |
| Bridgwater South | Labour 36.6%vs Reform 23.8% | 2022 Labour 53.8%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 19.1% |
| Bridgwater West | Conservative 30.4%vs Labour 29.3% | 2022 Conservative 50.6%vs Labour 31.7% | - | 25.3% |
| Burnham on Sea North | Conservative 29.5%vs Labour 27.1% | Sitting Conservative x1 Lib Dem x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Cannington | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 21.4% | 2022 Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 35.7% | - | 74.2% |
| Highbridge & Burnham South | Conservative 30.4%vs Reform 25.2% | 2022 Conservative 44.4%vs Lib Dem 35.4% | - | - |
| Huntspill | Conservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 20.6% | 2022 Conservative 55.0%vs Lib Dem 30.5% | - | 30.0% |
| King Alfred | Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2022 Lib Dem 48.6%vs Conservative 43.8% | - | 47.2% |
| North Petherton | Conservative 31.3%vs Labour 25.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 39.0% | - | 34.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bridgwater at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bridgwater at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 17.1% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 9,249 | 66.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 17.6% | 46.0% | 12.4% | 14,583 | 67.6%+1.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 28.6% | 55.1% | 10.9% | 15,448 | 65.3%-2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP, pre-review boundary | 20.7% | 57.9% | 17.6% | 16,724 | 63.0% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Ashley Fox | 27.2% | 30.6% | 14.4% | 1,349 | 56.1%-6.9 |
Bridgwater was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bridgwater and West Somerset (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bridgwater
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bridgwater. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 25.5vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 63.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 62.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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