Bridgwater
South West · County constituency · Somerset borough
About the Bridgwater constituency
Bridgwater is a county constituency in the South West, covering most or all of Somerset. The sitting MP is Sir Ashley Fox (Conservative), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won Bridgwater with 30.6% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 27.2%, a majority of 1,349 votes. Turnout was 56.1%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 37.5% and the Conservatives on 24.0% in Bridgwater, a margin of 13.5 points, a projected change from the Conservatives since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Bridgwater is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 57.9% voted Leave in 2016). About 23.5% of residents hold a degree, 65.2% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 44 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in Bridgwater? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bridgwater vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bridgwater
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Bridgwater within Somerset
The Westminster constituency of Bridgwater sits entirely within Somerset Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Somerset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Somerset | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bridgwater at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bridgwater at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 17.1% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 9,249 | 66.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 17.6% | 46.0% | 12.4% | 14,583 | 67.6%+1.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 28.6% | 55.1% | 10.9% | 15,448 | 65.3%-2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP, pre-review boundary | 20.7% | 57.9% | 17.6% | 16,724 | 63.0% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Ashley Fox | 27.2% | 30.6% | 14.4% | 1,349 | 56.1%-6.9 |
Bridgwater was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bridgwater and West Somerset (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bridgwater
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bridgwater. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 25.5vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 63.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.0 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 62.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.