Constituency profile

East Thanet

South East · Borough constituency · Thanet borough

Ms Polly Billington MP
Sitting MP

Ms Polly Billington

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
Borough constituency, Thanet council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
63.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +11.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +2.7pp
vs Reform UK 32.0%
SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the East Thanet constituency

East Thanet is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Ms Polly Billington (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.9% to 23.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,971 votes on a 57.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.7% and Reform UK on 32.0%, a margin of 2.7 points.

Who lives in East Thanet? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
63.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
58.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
41.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
43.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
26.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.0%
UK average ~28%

How did East Thanet vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 6,971 votes (16.3pp) · turnout 57.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of East Thanet

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

East Thanet within Thanet

East Thanet sits entirely within Thanet Council. Thanet was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Thanet
65 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Beacon RoadLabour 43.9%vs Conservative 23.4%2023 Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 23.4%-39.6%
BradstoweLabour 33.9%vs Conservative 31.9%2023 Conservative 44.4%vs Labour 27.7%-49.6%
Central HarbourLabour 44.0%vs Reform 19.0%2023 Labour 49.7%vs Green 34.0%-34.8%
Cliffsend and PegwellLabour 32.0%vs Conservative 32.0%2023 Conservative 39.7%vs Green 25.7%-42.2%
Cliftonville EastLabour 32.0%vs Conservative 32.0%2023 Conservative 55.9%vs Labour 33.1%-41.4%
Cliftonville WestLabour 45.6%vs Reform 20.5%2023 Labour 64.3%vs Conservative 18.6%-39.1%
Dane ValleyLabour 39.1%vs Reform 22.7%2023 Labour 69.3%vs Conservative 10.7%-34.4%
EastcliffLabour 44.2%vs Reform 21.2%2023 Labour 63.6%vs Conservative 24.2%-30.9%
KingsgateConservative 31.4%vs Labour 30.8%2023 Independent 49.8%vs Conservative 32.8%-43.6%
Margate CentralLabour 45.4%vs Reform 22.9%2023 Labour 64.7%vs Green 16.1%-31.4%
NethercourtLabour 44.3%vs Conservative 26.3%2023 Labour 53.5%vs Conservative 26.7%-37.1%
NewingtonLabour 42.3%vs Reform 23.4%2023 Labour 61.6%vs Conservative 31.2%-21.2%
NorthwoodLabour 40.4%vs Reform 23.5%2023 Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 25.5%-27.2%
SalmestoneLabour 40.0%vs Reform 21.7%2023 Labour 63.9%vs Conservative 21.8%-27.0%
Sir Moses MontefioreLabour 40.8%vs Conservative 23.5%2023 Labour 42.9%vs Green 34.6%-31.1%
St PetersLabour 35.1%vs Conservative 28.4%2023 Conservative 38.3%vs Green 30.9%-41.1%
VikingLabour 39.2%vs Conservative 28.1%2023 Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 37.4%-55.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for East Thanet at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won East Thanet at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdLaura Sandys South Thanet MP31.4%48.0%15.1%5.5% UKIP--7,61765.6%
2015predecessorCon holdCraig MacKinlay South Thanet MP23.8%38.1%1.9%32.4% UKIP2.2%1.6%2,81269.6%+4.0
2017predecessorCon holdCraig Mackinlay South Thanet MP37.9%50.8%3.0%6.0% UKIP1.6%0.6%6,38768.8%-0.8
2019notionalConservative winnerCraig Mackinlay South Thanet MP, pre-review boundary37.6%53.5%5.2%-3.7%-7,58564.9%
2024Lab gain from ConPolly Billington39.9%23.6%3.2%20.1% Ref10.7%2.4%6,97157.0%-7.9

East Thanet was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South Thanet (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like East Thanet

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Thanet. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.