East Thanet
South East · Borough constituency · Thanet borough
About the East Thanet constituency
East Thanet is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Ms Polly Billington (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.9% to 23.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,971 votes on a 57.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.7% and Reform UK on 32.0%, a margin of 2.7 points.
Who lives in East Thanet? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Thanet vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Thanet
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
East Thanet within Thanet
East Thanet sits entirely within Thanet Council. Thanet was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Thanet | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Road | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | 39.6% |
| Bradstowe | Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 44.4%vs Labour 27.7% | - | 49.6% |
| Central Harbour | Labour 44.0%vs Reform 19.0% | 2023 Labour 49.7%vs Green 34.0% | - | 34.8% |
| Cliffsend and Pegwell | Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 39.7%vs Green 25.7% | - | 42.2% |
| Cliftonville East | Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 55.9%vs Labour 33.1% | - | 41.4% |
| Cliftonville West | Labour 45.6%vs Reform 20.5% | 2023 Labour 64.3%vs Conservative 18.6% | - | 39.1% |
| Dane Valley | Labour 39.1%vs Reform 22.7% | 2023 Labour 69.3%vs Conservative 10.7% | - | 34.4% |
| Eastcliff | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 21.2% | 2023 Labour 63.6%vs Conservative 24.2% | - | 30.9% |
| Kingsgate | Conservative 31.4%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Independent 49.8%vs Conservative 32.8% | - | 43.6% |
| Margate Central | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 22.9% | 2023 Labour 64.7%vs Green 16.1% | - | 31.4% |
| Nethercourt | Labour 44.3%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Labour 53.5%vs Conservative 26.7% | - | 37.1% |
| Newington | Labour 42.3%vs Reform 23.4% | 2023 Labour 61.6%vs Conservative 31.2% | - | 21.2% |
| Northwood | Labour 40.4%vs Reform 23.5% | 2023 Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 27.2% |
| Salmestone | Labour 40.0%vs Reform 21.7% | 2023 Labour 63.9%vs Conservative 21.8% | - | 27.0% |
| Sir Moses Montefiore | Labour 40.8%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2023 Labour 42.9%vs Green 34.6% | - | 31.1% |
| St Peters | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Conservative 38.3%vs Green 30.9% | - | 41.1% |
| Viking | Labour 39.2%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 55.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Thanet at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Thanet at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Laura Sandys South Thanet MP | 31.4% | 48.0% | 15.1% | 7,617 | 65.6% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Craig MacKinlay South Thanet MP | 23.8% | 38.1% | 1.9% | 2,812 | 69.6%+4.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Craig Mackinlay South Thanet MP | 37.9% | 50.8% | 3.0% | 6,387 | 68.8%-0.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Craig Mackinlay South Thanet MP, pre-review boundary | 37.6% | 53.5% | 5.2% | 7,585 | 64.9% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Polly Billington | 39.9% | 23.6% | 3.2% | 6,971 | 57.0%-7.9 |
East Thanet was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South Thanet (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like East Thanet
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Thanet. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 26.6vs 20.2
- ↓Employed51.6 / 51.8vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 29.8vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 26.5vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 28.7vs 33.7
- ↓Employed51.6 / 53.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.4 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↓Employed51.6 / 51.5vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.4 / 62.5vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 29.5vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.4 / 64.3vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 27.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 25.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.