Torbay
South West · Borough constituency · Torbay borough
About the Torbay constituency
Torbay is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Steve Darling (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 41.1% to 29.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,349 votes on a 60.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.6% and the Liberal Democrats on 32.6%, a margin of 0.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Torbay? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Torbay vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Torbay
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Torbay within Torbay
Torbay sits entirely within Torbay Council. Torbay was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Torbay | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2024 | Wellswood | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton with Watcombe | Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 30.3% |
| Clifton with Maidenway | Lib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.3%vs Conservative 37.5% | - | 32.4% |
| Cockington with Chelston | Lib Dem 35.6%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 36.6%vs Independent 33.8% | - | 39.0% |
| Ellacombe | Lib Dem 43.4%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.6%vs Conservative 32.3% | - | 26.9% |
| Goodrington with Roselands | Lib Dem 42.2%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Lib Dem 36.2% | - | 36.7% |
| Preston | Conservative 36.6%vs Lib Dem 35.2% | 2023 Conservative 59.8%vs Lib Dem 31.9% | - | 38.2% |
| Roundham with Hyde | Lib Dem 40.4%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 42.3% | - | 26.7% |
| Shiphay | Lib Dem 35.5%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Independent 41.5%vs Conservative 34.9% | - | 20.9% |
| St Marychurch | Lib Dem 43.1%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.4%vs Conservative 41.7% | - | 37.1% |
| Tormohun | Lib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 33.2% | - | 29.4% |
| Wellswood | Conservative 38.4%vs Lib Dem 33.2% | 2023 Conservative 66.4%vs Lib Dem 27.1% | - | 39.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Torbay at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Torbay at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Adrian Sanders | 6.6% | 38.7% | 47.0% | 4,078 | 64.5% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Kevin Foster | 8.7% | 40.7% | 33.8% | 3,286 | 63.0%-1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Kevin Foster | 18.2% | 53.0% | 25.1% | 14,283 | 67.4%+4.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Kevin Foster 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 13.0% | 59.1% | 24.2% | 17,751 | 67.3%-0.1 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Steve Darling | 7.1% | 29.5% | 41.1% | 5,349 | 60.5%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Torbay
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Torbay. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave62.5 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 29.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.5 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent29.5 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 29.1vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent29.5 / 26.6vs 20.2
- ↓Employed51.3 / 51.8vs 57.3
- ↑Leave62.5 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 30.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Leave62.5 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.2 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.9vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.