Southend East and Rochford
East of England · County constituency
About the Southend East and Rochford constituency
Southend East and Rochford is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Mr Bayo Alaba (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.8% to 28.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,027 votes on a 56.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.3% and Labour on 21.9%, a margin of 13.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Southend East and Rochford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Southend East and Rochford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Southend East and Rochford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Southend East and Rochford within Southend-on-Sea and Rochford
Southend East and Rochford crosses council boundaries: Southend-on-Sea (78%), Rochford (22%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Southend-on-Sea | 78% | View projection › |
| Rochford | 22% | View projection › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochford East | Ref | Ref 43% Con 34% Grn 10% | 44.5% |
| Rochford South | Ref | Ref 42% Con 20% Rochford District Residents 17% | 44.3% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foulness and The Wakerings | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 29.9% | May 2026 Others 43.7%vs Reform 35.2% | Conservative→Others +32.9pp | - |
| Kursaal | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 19.5% | May 2026 Labour 32.9%vs Reform 29.0% | Labour share -14.4pp | - |
| Milton | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 21.8% | May 2026 Labour 30.2%vs Reform 27.8% | Labour share -19.2pp | - |
| Roche North and Rural | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Reform 48.6%vs Conservative 23.5% | Labour→Reform +27.9pp | - |
| Roche South | Labour 34.2%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Reform 40.3%vs Conservative 31.9% | Labour→Reform +22.3pp | - |
| Shoeburyness | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Reform 40.1%vs Others 24.4% | Labour→Reform +24.1pp | - |
| Southchurch | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 33.3% | May 2026 Conservative 43.9%vs Reform 29.7% | Conservative share +6.2pp | - |
| Thorpe | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 32.9% | May 2026 Reform 33.1%vs Others 32.4% | Conservative→Reform +15.9pp | - |
| Victoria | Labour 50.1%vs Conservative 19.2% | May 2026 Labour 34.5%vs Reform 29.4% | Labour share -15.6pp | - |
| West Shoebury | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 32.6% | May 2026 Reform 37.4%vs Conservative 26.3% | Conservative→Reform +14.5pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Southend East and Rochford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Southend East and Rochford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | James Duddridge Rochford and Southend East MP | 20.3% | 46.9% | 19.4% | 11,050 | 58.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | James Duddridge Rochford and Southend East MP | 24.7% | 46.4% | 3.3% | 9,476 | 60.6%+2.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | James Duddridge Rochford and Southend East MP | 37.0% | 48.7% | 2.7% | 5,548 | 64.3%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Duddridge Rochford and Southend East MP, pre-review boundary | 31.3% | 59.0% | 6.4% | 11,942 | 61.6% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Bayo Alaba | 38.8% | 28.7% | 5.7% | 4,027 | 56.5%-5.1 |
Southend East and Rochford was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Rochford and Southend East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Southend East and Rochford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Southend East and Rochford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.3 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent27.3 / 23.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave64.3 / 66.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 56.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.3 / 63.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent27.3 / 23.6vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.3 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 58.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.3 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent27.3 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 26.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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