West Suffolk
East of England · County constituency · West Suffolk borough
About the West Suffolk constituency
West Suffolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Nick Timothy (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.3% to 27.2% for Labour, a majority of 3,247 votes on a 59.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.0% and the Conservatives on 26.5%, a margin of 8.5 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in West Suffolk? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did West Suffolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of West Suffolk
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
West Suffolk within West Suffolk
West Suffolk sits entirely within West Suffolk Council. West Suffolk was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Suffolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Suffolk | 100% |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow & Thingoe | Con | Con 42% Ref 28% Grn 13% | 51.6% |
| Brandon | Ref | Ref 43% Independent 21% Con 17% | 38.2% |
| Clare | Con | Con 36% Ref 35% Grn 13% | 51.9% |
| Exning & Newmarket | Ref | Ref 30% Con 26% LD 23% | 38.7% |
| Haverhill East & Rural | Ref | Ref 35% Con 34% Grn 14% | 41.4% |
| Haverhill North West & Withersfield | Con | Con 50% Ref 26% Lab 10% | 39.0% |
| Haverhill South | Ref | Ref 39% Con 26% Grn 21% | 33.0% |
| Mildenhall | Ref | Ref 35% Independent 32% Con 18% | 39.4% |
| Newmarket & Red Lodge ED | Ref | Ref 36% Con 28% Grn 16% | 35.2% |
| Row Heath | Ref | Ref 44% Con 26% Grn 13% | 39.6% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2025 | Newmarket East | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 30% Con 25% LD 17% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Conservative 47.9%vs Labour 26.3% | - | 35.9% |
| Brandon Central | Conservative 30.6%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Others 58.9%vs Conservative 41.1% | - | 22.3% |
| Brandon East | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 23.8% | 2023 Others 48.5%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 26.0% |
| Brandon West | Conservative 30.7%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Others 57.2%vs Conservative 42.8% | - | 24.3% |
| Chedburgh & Chevington | Conservative 43.1%vs Labour 22.2% | 2019 Conservative 73.5%vs Labour 26.6% | - | 42.0% |
| Clare, Hundon & Kedington | Conservative 46.4%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Conservative 91.5%vs Reform 8.4% | - | 28.5% |
| Exning | Conservative 29.7%vs Labour 28.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.9%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 36.9% |
| Haverhill Central | Labour 28.7%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Independent 38.2%vs Labour 36.9% | - | 24.9% |
| Haverhill East | Labour 30.6%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Labour 60.4%vs Independent 23.0% | - | 23.9% |
| Haverhill North | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Conservative 47.3%vs Independent 27.9% | - | 35.8% |
| Haverhill South | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Labour 67.6%vs Independent 32.4% | - | 17.2% |
| Haverhill South East | Conservative 31.1%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Independent 72.0%vs Labour 28.0% | - | 27.8% |
| Haverhill West | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Labour 43.8%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | 28.5% |
| Horringer | Conservative 41.7%vs Labour 23.8% | 2023 Conservative 49.8%vs Green 29.7% | - | 40.5% |
| Iceni | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 27.1% | 2023 Others 44.3%vs Conservative 19.1% | - | 26.9% |
| Kentford & Moulton | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 23.7% | 2023 Others 57.4%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | 39.7% |
| Lakenheath | Conservative 30.6%vs Labour 29.4% | 2023 Independent 60.3%vs Conservative 39.7% | - | 27.6% |
| Manor | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 28.1% | 2023 Others 50.9%vs Conservative 49.1% | - | 34.0% |
| Mildenhall Great Heath | Labour 32.4%vs Reform 25.0% | 2023 Independent 82.1%vs Conservative 17.9% | - | 21.6% |
| Mildenhall Kingsway & Market | Conservative 29.6%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Independent 64.5%vs Conservative 19.3% | - | 28.1% |
| Mildenhall Queensway | Conservative 31.2%vs Labour 29.0% | 2019 Independent 57.2%vs Conservative 42.8% | - | 42.0% |
| Newmarket East | Conservative 29.7%vs Labour 27.6% | 2023 Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 19.6% | - | 37.4% |
| Newmarket North | Conservative 28.8%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Others 53.9%vs Labour 24.2% | - | 31.6% |
| Newmarket West | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 28.4% | - | 35.1% |
| Risby | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 25.0% | 2023 Conservative 64.0%vs Labour 36.0% | - | 34.9% |
| The Rows | Conservative 30.0%vs Labour 29.5% | 2023 Others 54.1%vs Conservative 45.9% | - | 23.2% |
| Whepstead & Wickhambrook | Conservative 43.5%vs Labour 21.6% | 2023 Conservative 67.5%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 36.8% |
| Withersfield | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 31.9% | 2023 Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 44.0% | - | 40.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for West Suffolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won West Suffolk at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Matthew Hancock | 14.7% | 50.6% | 23.4% | 13,050 | 64.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Matthew Hancock | 17.5% | 52.2% | 5.0% | 14,984 | 64.6%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Matt Hancock | 28.2% | 61.2% | 4.2% | 17,063 | 66.9%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Matthew Hancock 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.2% | 64.3% | 9.0% | 20,797 | 64.7%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Nick Timothy | 27.2% | 34.3% | 9.3% | 3,247 | 59.8%-4.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like West Suffolk
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Suffolk. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave63.2 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 22.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave63.2 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↑Employed61.7 / 61.7vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.2 / 66.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 21.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave63.2 / 64.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 25.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 20.9vs 18.0
- ↑Leave63.2 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 24.2vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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