Constituency profile

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency

Emma Hardy MP
Sitting MP

Emma Hardy

Labour

First elected June 2017

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLCL
Labour 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
61.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +9.7pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +0.2pp
vs Reform UK 32.7%
NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice constituency

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Emma Hardy (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.8% to 23.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,979 votes on a 52.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.9% and Reform UK on 32.7%, a margin of 0.2 points.

Who lives in Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
61.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
25.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
58.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
40.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
41.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
23.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 8,979 votes (23.5pp) · turnout 52.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice within Kingston upon Hull, City of and East Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice crosses council boundaries: Kingston upon Hull, City of (60%), East Riding of Yorkshire (40%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Kingston upon Hull, City of
39 LSOAs
60%
East Riding of Yorkshire
26 LSOAs
40%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
1 Mar 2024Tranby
East Riding of Yorkshire
LD HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BoothferryLabour 50.4%vs Reform 22.1%May 2026 Lib Dem 44.0%vs Reform 35.2%
Labour→Lib Dem
+37.8pp
-
DerringhamLabour 50.8%vs Reform 22.1%May 2026 Reform 40.6%vs Lib Dem 35.6%
Labour→Reform
+27.8pp
-
HessleLabour 44.6%vs Reform 24.8%2023 Lib Dem 46.5%vs Labour 39.8%-25.2%
Newington & GipsyvilleLabour 53.4%vs Reform 23.9%May 2026 Reform 40.7%vs Labour 29.8%
Labour→Reform
+20.2pp
-
PickeringLabour 50.8%vs Reform 22.5%May 2026 Lib Dem 41.0%vs Reform 40.3%
Labour→Lib Dem
+36.0pp
-
St Andrew's & DocklandsLabour 53.8%vs Reform 25.4%May 2026 Reform 33.3%vs Labour 32.8%
Labour→Reform
+14.5pp
-
TranbyLabour 39.8%vs Conservative 24.0%2023 Lib Dem 59.4%vs Labour 23.5%-29.1%
Willerby and Kirk EllaLabour 35.2%vs Conservative 32.8%2023 Conservative 49.1%vs Labour 26.0%-29.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdAlan Johnson Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle MP42.5%20.2%24.2%5.4% UKIP-7.8%5,74255.0%
2015predecessorLab holdAlan Johnson Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle MP49.2%17.5%10.0%19.9% UKIP3.0%0.5%9,33353.8%-1.2
2017predecessorLab holdEmma Hardy Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle MP53.1%29.8%6.4%4.0% UKIP1.0%5.7%8,02557.4%+3.6
2019notionalConservative winnerDavid Davis Haltemprice and Howden MP, pre-review boundary33.8%42.5%9.2%-1.1%13.4%3,62656.0%
2024Lab gain from ConEmma Hardy46.8%18.1%6.9%23.3% Ref4.6%0.3%8,97952.1%-3.9

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.