Constituency profile

Telford

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Telford and Wrekin borough

Shaun Davies MP
Sitting MP

Shaun Davies

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Telford and Wrekin council
Last 5 GE winners
LCCCL
Conservative 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
66.2% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +14.3pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +1.6pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Telford constituency

Telford is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Shaun Davies (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.7% to 24.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,102 votes on a 55.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.5% and Labour on 32.9%, a margin of 1.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Telford? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
66.2%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
24.1%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
56.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
42.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
38.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
19.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
31.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Telford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 8,102 votes (19.9pp) · turnout 55.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Telford

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Telford within Telford and Wrekin

Telford sits entirely within Telford and Wrekin Council. Telford and Wrekin was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Telford and Wrekin
67 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
2 Jul 2026Malinslee & Dawley Bank
Telford and Wrekin
Lab HOLDLab 43% Ref 41% Con 8%
15 Nov 2024The Nedge
Telford and Wrekin
Lab HOLD
7 Jun 2024The Nedge
Telford and Wrekin
Lab HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BrooksideLabour 45.2%vs Reform 26.9%2023 Labour 74.5%vs Conservative 14.5%-22.9%
Dawley & AqueductLabour 44.9%vs Reform 24.5%2023 Labour 62.9%vs Conservative 19.8%-30.8%
Horsehay & LightmoorLabour 42.3%vs Conservative 25.8%2023 Labour 61.5%vs Independent 23.8%-32.9%
Ironbridge GorgeLabour 48.8%vs Conservative 22.2%2023 Labour 80.5%vs Conservative 12.2%-45.2%
KetleyLabour 44.1%vs Reform 24.4%2023 Labour 52.5%vs Conservative 32.5%-32.6%
LawleyLabour 43.6%vs Reform 22.1%2023 Labour 48.4%vs Lib Dem 24.7%-30.1%
Madeley & Sutton HillLabour 43.7%vs Reform 25.8%2023 Labour 66.4%vs Conservative 25.2%-35.1%
Malinslee & Dawley BankLabour 48.8%vs Reform 25.5%2023 Labour 77.9%vs Conservative 18.3%-29.2%
Oakengates & Ketley BankLabour 43.1%vs Reform 27.6%2023 Labour 56.1%vs Conservative 23.3%-26.2%
Overdale & The RockLabour 50.0%vs Reform 22.4%2023 Labour 56.9%vs Conservative 28.8%-28.6%
PriorsleeLabour 38.1%vs Conservative 32.7%2023 Conservative 53.9%vs Labour 38.8%-41.8%
St GeorgesLabour 43.5%vs Reform 27.1%2023 Labour 63.2%vs Conservative 29.5%-31.4%
The NedgeLabour 44.5%vs Reform 26.1%2023 Labour 57.0%vs Conservative 21.6%-32.7%
WoodsideLabour 48.1%vs Reform 24.6%2023 Labour 76.7%vs Conservative 19.0%-21.5%
Wrockwardine Wood & TrenchLabour 47.2%vs Reform 22.1%2023 Labour 79.3%vs Conservative 20.7%-30.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Telford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Telford at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdDavid Wright38.7%36.3%15.5%5.9% UKIP-3.7%97863.5%
2015Con gain from LabLucy Allan37.8%39.6%2.3%18.0% UKIP2.3%-73061.4%-2.1
2017Con holdLucy Allan47.1%48.7%2.1%-2.0%-72065.6%+4.2
2019notionalConservative winnerLucy Allan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary34.3%59.4%6.2%-0.1%-10,90061.5%-4.1
2024Lab gain from ConShaun Davies44.7%21.4%3.8%24.8% Ref5.2%-8,10255.2%-6.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Telford

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Telford. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.