Stockton North
North East · County constituency · Stockton-on-Tees borough
About the Stockton North constituency
Stockton North is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Chris McDonald (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.8% to 24.6% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,939 votes on a 53.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.9% and Reform UK on 30.4%, a margin of 5.5 points.
Who lives in Stockton North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stockton North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stockton North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stockton North within Stockton-on-Tees
Stockton North sits entirely within Stockton-on-Tees Council. Stockton-on-Tees was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stockton-on-Tees | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billingham Central | Labour 47.4%vs Reform 27.5% | 2023 Labour 61.7%vs Conservative 19.8% | - | 28.6% |
| Billingham East | Labour 50.4%vs Reform 24.7% | 2023 Labour 64.5%vs Conservative 18.8% | - | 24.1% |
| Billingham North | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 24.1% | 2023 Labour 58.5%vs Conservative 37.3% | - | 36.6% |
| Billingham South | Labour 49.5%vs Reform 23.9% | 2023 Labour 68.8%vs Conservative 19.9% | - | 29.5% |
| Billingham West & Wolviston | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 42.3%vs Independent 29.5% | - | 42.5% |
| Grangefield | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Labour 62.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 35.2% |
| Hardwick & Salters Lane | Labour 48.4%vs Reform 27.7% | 2023 Labour 58.6%vs Reform 27.1% | - | 22.0% |
| Newtown | Labour 49.8%vs Reform 24.9% | 2023 Labour 74.4%vs Conservative 25.6% | - | 19.1% |
| Northern Parishes | Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 64.3%vs Independent 18.7% | - | 112.1% |
| Norton Central | Labour 46.6%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 48.9%vs Independent 27.9% | - | 29.5% |
| Norton North | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2023 Conservative 55.2%vs Labour 44.8% | - | 50.2% |
| Norton South | Labour 48.7%vs Reform 25.1% | 2023 Labour 75.5%vs Conservative 24.4% | - | 26.7% |
| Ropner | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2023 Conservative 55.4%vs Labour 44.6% | - | 32.6% |
| Roseworth | Labour 48.5%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 72.9%vs Conservative 22.5% | - | 21.8% |
| Stockton Town Centre | Labour 48.3%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Labour 64.0%vs Conservative 28.4% | - | 24.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stockton North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stockton North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Alex Cunningham | 42.8% | 25.9% | 16.1% | 6,676 | 59.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Alex Cunningham | 49.1% | 28.0% | 2.2% | 8,367 | 59.8%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Alex Cunningham | 56.9% | 36.5% | 1.5% | 8,715 | 64.5%+4.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Alex Cunningham 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 46.7% | 37.5% | 4.0% | 3,972 | 61.8%-2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Chris McDonald | 45.8% | 21.5% | 3.0% | 7,939 | 53.2%-8.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stockton North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stockton North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave66.3 / 69.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↓Employed52.4 / 50.5vs 57.3
- ↑Leave66.3 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent21.6 / 21.7vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 28.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave66.3 / 63.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent21.6 / 20.7vs 16.8
- ↑Leave66.3 / 69.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent21.6 / 20.1vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate25.1 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave66.3 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent21.6 / 18.9vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.