Hartlepool
North East · County constituency · Hartlepool borough
About the Hartlepool constituency
Hartlepool is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Mr Jonathan Brash (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.2% to 24.5% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,698 votes on a 49.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.2% and Reform UK on 35.1%, a margin of 3.1 points.
Who lives in Hartlepool? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hartlepool vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hartlepool
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hartlepool within Hartlepool
Hartlepool sits entirely within Hartlepool Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burn Valley | Labour 50.7%vs Reform 22.8% | May 2026 Reform 41.1%vs Labour 35.9% | Labour→Reform +16.6pp | - |
| De Bruce | Labour 48.5%vs Reform 26.0% | May 2026 Reform 60.0%vs Labour 25.5% | Labour→Reform +28.5pp | - |
| Fens & Greatham | Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 24.7% | May 2026 Reform 46.6%vs Labour 32.6% | Labour→Reform +18.0pp | - |
| Foggy Furze | Labour 47.6%vs Reform 23.3% | May 2026 Reform 47.4%vs Labour 22.2% | Labour→Reform +24.7pp | - |
| Hart | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 27.9% | May 2026 Reform 45.3%vs Labour 21.5% | Labour→Reform +18.8pp | - |
| Headland & Harbour | Labour 44.4%vs Reform 30.3% | May 2026 Reform 53.0%vs Labour 25.3% | Labour→Reform +20.9pp | - |
| Manor House | Labour 50.2%vs Reform 23.8% | May 2026 Reform 66.3%vs Labour 22.6% | Labour→Reform +35.1pp | - |
| Rossmere | Labour 48.9%vs Reform 23.1% | May 2026 Reform 64.5%vs Labour 19.5% | Labour→Reform +35.4pp | - |
| Rural West | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 32.4% | May 2026 Reform 43.2%vs Conservative 27.7% | Labour→Reform +21.3pp | - |
| Seaton | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 45.4%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Reform +21.4pp | - |
| Throston | Labour 49.0%vs Reform 25.4% | May 2026 Reform 53.4%vs Labour 29.0% | Labour→Reform +24.0pp | - |
| Victoria | Labour 49.7%vs Reform 24.6% | May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Labour 31.4% | Labour→Reform +18.6pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hartlepool at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hartlepool at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Iain Wright | 42.5% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 5,509 | 55.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Iain Wright | 35.6% | 20.9% | 1.9% | 3,024 | 56.5%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Mike Hill | 52.5% | 34.2% | 1.8% | 7,650 | 59.2%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Mike Hill 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 37.7% | 28.9% | 4.1% | 3,595 | 57.6%-1.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Jonathan Brash | 46.2% | 21.9% | 1.6% | 7,698 | 49.7%-7.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hartlepool
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hartlepool. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave69.6 / 66.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 21.2vs 33.7
- ↓Employed50.5 / 50.2vs 57.3
- ↑Leave69.6 / 66.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 25.1vs 33.7
- ↓Employed50.5 / 52.4vs 57.3
- ↑Leave69.6 / 67.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 24.2vs 33.7
- ↓Employed50.5 / 49.7vs 57.3
- ↑Leave69.6 / 69.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.1 / 25.9vs 18.0
- ↑Leave69.6 / 68.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 21.3vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent23.4 / 22.0vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.