Constituency profile

Redcar

North East · Borough constituency · Redcar and Cleveland borough

Anna Turley MP
Sitting MP

Anna Turley

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North East
Borough constituency, Redcar and Cleveland council
Last 5 GE winners
LDLLCL
Labour 3/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
67.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +15.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +3.0pp
vs Conservative 28.2%
NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Redcar constituency

Redcar is a borough constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Anna Turley (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.0% to 32.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,323 votes on a 54.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.3% and the Conservatives on 28.2%, a margin of 3.0 points.

Who lives in Redcar? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
67.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
24.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
63.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
36.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Redcar vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 3,323 votes (8.7pp) · turnout 54.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Redcar

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Redcar within Redcar and Cleveland

Redcar sits entirely within Redcar and Cleveland Council. Redcar and Cleveland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Redcar and Cleveland
62 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
18 Feb 2026Zetland
Redcar and Cleveland
LD GAIN from LabLD 50% Lab 22% Ref 14%
20 Nov 2025South Bank
Redcar & Cleveland
Lab HOLDLab 47% Ref 44% Con 8%
6 Sep 2024Longbeck
Redcar and Cleveland
Con GAIN from Lab—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
CoathamLabour 46.4%vs Conservative 25.7%2023 Labour 49.7%vs Independent 23.6%-29.1%
DormanstownLabour 47.1%vs Conservative 25.6%2023 Independent 46.2%vs Labour 41.8%-26.3%
EstonConservative 35.3%vs Labour 34.4%2023 Labour 53.7%vs Conservative 40.8%-25.7%
GrangetownLabour 47.0%vs Conservative 22.9%2023 Labour 76.9%vs Conservative 23.1%-15.3%
KirkleathamLabour 41.3%vs Conservative 32.4%2023 Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 28.0%-28.8%
LongbeckConservative 45.6%vs Labour 34.2%2023 Independent 41.5%vs Labour 29.3%-45.6%
NewcomenLabour 47.6%vs Conservative 26.0%2023 Labour 53.1%vs Independent 27.2%-28.8%
NormanbyLabour 39.8%vs Conservative 37.7%2023 Conservative 45.9%vs Labour 38.6%-37.0%
OrmesbyLabour 37.2%vs Conservative 29.4%2023 Lib Dem 65.8%vs Labour 19.5%-28.9%
SaltburnLabour 43.2%vs Conservative 36.1%2023 Independent 52.1%vs Labour 23.2%-46.4%
South BankLabour 49.5%vs Reform 21.7%2023 Labour 70.0%vs Independent 22.9%-25.4%
St Germain'sConservative 36.2%vs Labour 34.6%2023 Lib Dem 63.7%vs Conservative 17.9%-39.5%
TeesvilleLabour 43.9%vs Conservative 30.3%2023 Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 30.1%-28.3%
West DykeLabour 39.7%vs Conservative 32.1%2023 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Labour 29.3%-30.8%
WheatlandsConservative 39.9%vs Labour 33.5%2023 Conservative 39.4%vs Lib Dem 32.5%-30.0%
ZetlandLabour 46.3%vs Conservative 27.4%2023 Labour 47.2%vs Lib Dem 34.9%-33.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Redcar at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Redcar at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD gain from LabIan Swales32.7%13.8%45.2%4.5% UKIP-3.8%5,21462.5%
2015Lab gain from LDAnna Turley43.9%16.2%18.5%18.4% UKIP2.2%1.0%10,38863.1%+0.6
2017Lab holdAnna Turley55.5%33.2%6.7%4.6% UKIP--9,48563.7%+0.6
2019notionalConservative winnerJacob Young 2019 MP, pre-review boundary36.6%47.5%4.8%-1.6%9.5%4,87862.7%-1.0
2024Lab gain from ConAnna Turley41.0%32.3%4.0%18.9% Ref3.3%0.4%3,32354.4%-8.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Redcar

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Redcar. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.