Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
North East · County constituency
About the Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland constituency
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Luke Myer (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.3% to 42.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 214 votes on a 54.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.6% and the Conservatives on 31.3%, a margin of 2.3 points.
Who lives in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland within Middlesbrough and Redcar and Cleveland
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland crosses council boundaries: Middlesbrough (55%), Redcar and Cleveland (45%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 55% |
| Redcar and Cleveland | 45% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2025 | Nunthorpe | Ref GAIN from LD | Ref 36% LD 35% Con 21% |
| 9 Oct 2025 | Skelton East | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 65% Lab 19% Con 14% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Hemlington | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 39.2% | 2023 Conservative 37.7%vs Independent 36.9% | - | 39.1% |
| Brotton | Conservative 43.6%vs Labour 41.1% | 2023 Independent 72.6%vs Labour 15.5% | - | 28.7% |
| Coulby Newham | Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | 39.6% |
| Guisborough | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 42.3% | 2023 Labour 40.3%vs Independent 28.1% | - | 40.3% |
| Hemlington | Labour 56.5%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2023 Labour 60.4%vs Independent 24.6% | - | 20.2% |
| Hutton | Conservative 56.4%vs Labour 30.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.0%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 42.2% |
| Ladgate | Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 37.0% | 2023 Labour 40.0%vs Independent 33.7% | - | 36.4% |
| Lockwood | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 36.5% | 2023 Others 71.4%vs Labour 23.8% | - | 39.5% |
| Loftus | Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 42.1% | 2023 Independent 49.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 34.1% |
| Marton East | Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 41.9% | 2023 Independent 54.8%vs Labour 21.7% | - | 31.5% |
| Marton West | Conservative 41.7%vs Labour 39.8% | 2023 Independent 45.3%vs Conservative 37.3% | - | 38.3% |
| Nunthorpe | Conservative 51.1%vs Labour 35.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 36.7%vs Conservative 32.6% | - | 45.4% |
| Park End & Beckfield | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Independent 65.0%vs Labour 30.0% | - | 19.2% |
| Skelton East | Conservative 48.0%vs Labour 38.8% | 2023 Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 33.5% | - | 29.6% |
| Skelton West | Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 43.4% | 2023 Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 39.5% | - | 34.9% |
| Stainton & Thornton | Conservative 48.0%vs Labour 39.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Labour 46.0% | - | 35.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Tom Blenkinsop | 39.2% | 35.6% | 15.9% | 1,677 | 63.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Tom Blenkinsop | 42.0% | 37.1% | 3.4% | 2,268 | 64.2%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Con gain from Lab | Simon Clarke | 47.5% | 49.6% | 2.8% | 1,020 | 65.8%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Simon Clarke 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.0% | 57.9% | 4.0% | 10,299 | 64.3%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Luke Myer | 43.3% | 42.7% | 5.3% | 214 | 54.1%-10.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.3 / 62.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↑Leave65.3 / 67.7vs 53.2
- ↓Employed50.8 / 49.7vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 24.2vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.3 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.9 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Leave65.3 / 63.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.8 / 30.0vs 22.7
- ↑Leave65.3 / 60.9vs 53.2
- ↓Employed50.8 / 51.2vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 25.7vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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