Constituency profile

Havant

South East · Borough constituency · Havant borough

Alan Mak MP
Sitting MP

Alan Mak

Conservative

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
Borough constituency, Havant council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
62.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +10.7pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +16.0pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Havant constituency

Havant is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Alan Mak (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.8% to 30.6% for Labour, a majority of 92 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.6% and the Conservatives on 22.6%, a margin of 16.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Havant? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
62.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
66.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.9
UK median ~40
Age 65+
28.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
25.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Havant vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 92 votes (0.2pp) · turnout 58.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Havant

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Havant within Havant

Havant sits entirely within Havant Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Havant
61 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
Emsworth & St. FaithsGrnGrn 34% Con 26% Ref 24%52.5%
Hayling IslandRefRef 40% Grn 28% Con 27%49.1%
North East HavantRefRef 49% Con 17% Grn 14%100.0%
North West HavantRefRef 42% Con 22% LD 20%37.6%
Purbrook & Stakes SouthRefRef 42% LD 22% Con 20%40.9%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BedhamptonConservative 31.9%vs Reform 24.7%May 2026 Reform 41.8%vs Lib Dem 33.1%
Conservative→Reform
+12.0pp
40.1%
EmsworthConservative 35.1%vs Labour 28.4%May 2026 Green 49.2%vs Conservative 28.4%
Conservative→Green
+23.9pp
53.5%
Havant St Faith'sLabour 41.2%vs Conservative 28.6%May 2026 Labour 37.1%vs Reform 31.9%
Labour share
-4.1pp
48.1%
Hayling EastConservative 34.0%vs Labour 30.9%May 2026 Reform 42.9%vs Green 33.5%
Conservative→Reform
+15.9pp
48.4%
Hayling WestConservative 35.8%vs Labour 26.4%May 2026 Green 36.6%vs Reform 33.4%
Conservative→Green
+18.3pp
50.1%
PurbrookConservative 33.5%vs Labour 28.4%May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Lib Dem 36.1%
Conservative→Reform
+16.1pp
43.8%
StakesLabour 31.1%vs Conservative 28.7%May 2026 Reform 45.8%vs Conservative 30.5%
Labour→Reform
+13.6pp
37.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Havant at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Havant at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdDavid Willetts17.7%51.1%23.4%5.9% UKIP-1.8%12,16063.0%
2015Con holdAlan Mak15.9%51.7%6.5%20.6% UKIP5.2%-13,92063.5%+0.5
2017Con holdAlan Mak25.3%59.8%6.0%4.3% UKIP2.4%2.1%15,95663.9%+0.4
2019notionalConservative winnerAlan Mak 2019 MP, pre-review boundary18.0%65.4%12.4%-3.5%0.7%21,79263.2%-0.7
2024Con holdAlan Mak30.6%30.8%7.8%23.6% Ref6.8%0.5%9258.3%-4.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Havant

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Havant. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.