Havant
South East · Borough constituency · Havant borough
About the Havant constituency
Havant is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Alan Mak (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.8% to 30.6% for Labour, a majority of 92 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.6% and the Conservatives on 22.6%, a margin of 16.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Havant? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Havant vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Havant
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Havant within Havant
Havant sits entirely within Havant Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Havant | 100% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emsworth & St. Faiths | Grn | Grn 34% Con 26% Ref 24% | 52.5% |
| Hayling Island | Ref | Ref 40% Grn 28% Con 27% | 49.1% |
| North East Havant | Ref | Ref 49% Con 17% Grn 14% | 100.0% |
| North West Havant | Ref | Ref 42% Con 22% LD 20% | 37.6% |
| Purbrook & Stakes South | Ref | Ref 42% LD 22% Con 20% | 40.9% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedhampton | Conservative 31.9%vs Reform 24.7% | May 2026 Reform 41.8%vs Lib Dem 33.1% | Conservative→Reform +12.0pp | 40.1% |
| Emsworth | Conservative 35.1%vs Labour 28.4% | May 2026 Green 49.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | Conservative→Green +23.9pp | 53.5% |
| Havant St Faith's | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Labour 37.1%vs Reform 31.9% | Labour share -4.1pp | 48.1% |
| Hayling East | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 30.9% | May 2026 Reform 42.9%vs Green 33.5% | Conservative→Reform +15.9pp | 48.4% |
| Hayling West | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 26.4% | May 2026 Green 36.6%vs Reform 33.4% | Conservative→Green +18.3pp | 50.1% |
| Purbrook | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 28.4% | May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Lib Dem 36.1% | Conservative→Reform +16.1pp | 43.8% |
| Stakes | Labour 31.1%vs Conservative 28.7% | May 2026 Reform 45.8%vs Conservative 30.5% | Labour→Reform +13.6pp | 37.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Havant at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Havant at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Willetts | 17.7% | 51.1% | 23.4% | 12,160 | 63.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Alan Mak | 15.9% | 51.7% | 6.5% | 13,920 | 63.5%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Alan Mak | 25.3% | 59.8% | 6.0% | 15,956 | 63.9%+0.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alan Mak 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.0% | 65.4% | 12.4% | 21,792 | 63.2%-0.7 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Alan Mak | 30.6% | 30.8% | 7.8% | 92 | 58.3%-4.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Havant
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Havant. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 10.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave62.6 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↑Leave62.6 / 65.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 14.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave62.6 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.6 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Leave62.6 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 10.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 27.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave62.6 / 58.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.