North East Derbyshire
East Midlands · County constituency
About the North East Derbyshire constituency
North East Derbyshire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Louise Sandher-Jones (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.4% to 34.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,753 votes on a 62.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 30.0% and Labour on 29.8%, a margin of 0.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North East Derbyshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North East Derbyshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North East Derbyshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North East Derbyshire within North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield
North East Derbyshire crosses council boundaries: North East Derbyshire (88%), Chesterfield (12%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North East Derbyshire | 88% |
| Chesterfield | 12% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | Clay Cross North | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Staveley North | Lab GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashover | Conservative 47.7%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Independent 49.6%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 47.5% |
| Barlow & Holmesfield | Conservative 45.3%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 63.3%vs Labour 24.1% | - | 37.1% |
| Brampton & Walton | Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 31.0% | 2023 Conservative 63.1%vs Labour 27.6% | - | 41.1% |
| Clay Cross North | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2023 Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 40.6% | - | 31.4% |
| Clay Cross South | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Labour 61.9%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 27.6% |
| Coal Aston | Conservative 41.7%vs Labour 33.0% | 2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Independent 30.1% | - | 48.0% |
| Dronfield North | Labour 41.8%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Labour 52.8%vs Conservative 37.9% | - | 29.9% |
| Dronfield South | Conservative 38.6%vs Labour 35.9% | 2023 Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 42.7% | - | 38.8% |
| Dronfield Woodhouse | Conservative 41.2%vs Labour 33.8% | 2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 33.0% | - | 41.5% |
| Eckington North | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2023 Labour 54.1%vs Conservative 45.9% | - | 32.4% |
| Eckington South & Renishaw | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Labour 58.8%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | 23.9% |
| Gosforth Valley | Conservative 41.5%vs Labour 33.3% | 2023 Conservative 50.6%vs Labour 33.0% | - | 43.2% |
| Grassmoor | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Labour 70.0%vs Conservative 20.2% | - | 24.7% |
| Killamarsh East | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 47.1% | - | 27.4% |
| Killamarsh West | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 38.8% | - | 30.5% |
| North Wingfield Central | Labour 46.4%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Labour 71.0%vs Conservative 21.8% | - | 26.3% |
| Ridgeway & Marsh Lane | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 33.5% | 2023 Conservative 56.8%vs Labour 23.7% | - | 38.9% |
| Staveley Central | Labour 51.1%vs Reform 23.5% | 2023 Labour 54.2%vs Independent 35.7% | - | 21.4% |
| Staveley North | Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.4%vs Labour 37.2% | - | 28.4% |
| Tupton | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Labour 37.4% | - | 31.8% |
| Unstone | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 35.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.2%vs Labour 40.5% | - | 39.8% |
| Whittington | Labour 40.9%vs Reform 20.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.1%vs Labour 32.1% | - | 28.8% |
| Wingerworth | Conservative 44.3%vs Labour 30.7% | 2023 Green 40.5%vs Conservative 37.5% | - | 41.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North East Derbyshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North East Derbyshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Natascha Engel | 38.2% | 33.0% | 23.3% | 2,445 | 65.9% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Natascha Engel | 40.6% | 36.7% | 4.2% | 1,883 | 67.1%+1.2 |
| 2017 | Con gain from Lab | Lee Rowley | 43.5% | 49.2% | 2.8% | 2,860 | 69.9%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Lee Rowley 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 32.3% | 58.4% | 6.1% | 12,902 | 68.4%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Louise Jones | 38.4% | 34.5% | 4.7% | 1,753 | 62.6%-5.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North East Derbyshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North East Derbyshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent10.3 / 10.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave62.0 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.6 / 68.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave62.0 / 62.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.3 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.6 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.3 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↑Leave62.0 / 59.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.3 / 11.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.6 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave62.0 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.6 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.3 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 22.6vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.