West Lancashire
North West · County constituency · West Lancashire borough
About the West Lancashire constituency
West Lancashire is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Ashley Dalton (Labour), first elected in February 2023. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.5% to 19.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 13,625 votes on a 59.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.8% and Reform UK on 28.9%, a margin of 13.0 points.
Who lives in West Lancashire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did West Lancashire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of West Lancashire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
West Lancashire within West Lancashire
West Lancashire sits entirely within West Lancashire Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| West Lancashire | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aughton & Holborn | Labour 48.2%vs Conservative 25.6% | May 2026 Others 39.4%vs Reform 24.2% | Labour→Others +36.6pp | 45.0% |
| Burscough Bridge & Rufford | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 30.5% | May 2026 Reform 28.8%vs Others 26.4% | Labour→Reform +18.1pp | 49.0% |
| Burscough Town | Labour 52.8%vs Conservative 19.5% | May 2026 Others 40.3%vs Reform 27.0% | Labour→Others +37.8pp | 40.7% |
| Old Skelmersdale | Labour 56.3%vs Reform 18.7% | May 2026 Reform 42.8%vs Labour 26.6% | Labour→Reform +26.9pp | 33.1% |
| Ormskirk East | Labour 56.8%vs Reform 15.6% | May 2026 Others 43.0%vs Reform 19.8% | Labour→Others +40.1pp | 45.9% |
| Ormskirk West | Labour 56.9%vs Reform 15.9% | May 2026 Others 42.5%vs Reform 22.5% | Labour→Others +40.5pp | 44.5% |
| Rural North East | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 30.3% | May 2026 Conservative 35.8%vs Reform 32.8% | Labour→Conservative +14.1pp | 50.1% |
| Rural South | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 24.5% | May 2026 Others 40.6%vs Reform 28.0% | Labour→Others +35.1pp | 42.8% |
| Rural West | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 26.7% | May 2026 Reform 46.7%vs Conservative 20.7% | Labour→Reform +26.1pp | 44.3% |
| Skelmersdale North | Labour 56.2%vs Reform 17.6% | May 2026 Reform 38.8%vs Labour 26.5% | Labour→Reform +25.5pp | 34.2% |
| Skelmersdale South | Labour 56.4%vs Reform 18.3% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Others 26.7% | Labour→Reform +25.4pp | 29.7% |
| Tanhouse & Skelmersdale Town Centre | Labour 55.8%vs Reform 19.9% | May 2026 Reform 41.9%vs Labour 20.4% | Labour→Reform +28.7pp | 27.2% |
| Up Holland | Labour 49.6%vs Conservative 21.2% | May 2026 Reform 40.0%vs Labour 23.3% | Labour→Reform +24.7pp | 42.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for West Lancashire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won West Lancashire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Rosie Cooper | 45.1% | 36.2% | 13.6% | 4,343 | 65.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Rosie Cooper | 49.3% | 32.4% | 2.6% | 8,360 | 70.1%+4.4 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Rosie Cooper | 58.9% | 37.4% | 2.0% | 11,689 | 74.2%+4.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Rosie Cooper 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 52.1% | 36.3% | 4.9% | 8,336 | 71.5%-2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Ashley Dalton | 50.5% | 19.6% | 4.6% | 13,625 | 59.7%-11.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like West Lancashire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Lancashire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 14.8vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 66.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 68.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 65.7vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.