Torfaen
Wales · County constituency · Torfaen borough
About the Torfaen constituency
Torfaen is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.5% to 22.0% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,322 votes on a 49.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.0% and Labour on 26.4%, a margin of 3.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Torfaen? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Torfaen vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Torfaen
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Torfaen voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Torfaen sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Fynwy Torfaen. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Torfaen | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Fynwy Torfaen | 99% | Reform UK 31.1% | Plaid Cymru 23.5% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Torfaen within Torfaen
Torfaen sits entirely within Torfaen Council. Torfaen was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Torfaen | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | Llantarnam | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 43% Lab 31% PC 16% |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Trevethin and Penygarn | Ref GAIN from Lab | — |
| 3 Feb 2023 | Llantarnam | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abersychan | Labour 43.1%vs Reform 22.6% | 2022 Labour 54.1%vs Independent 39.1% | - | 32.0% |
| Blaenavon | Labour 40.5%vs Reform 21.6% | 2022 Labour 48.4%vs Independent 45.2% | - | 32.0% |
| Coed Eva | Labour 47.0%vs Reform 20.1% | 2022 Labour 69.7%vs Conservative 18.8% | - | 32.0% |
| Croesyceiliog | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 20.7% | 2022 Labour 70.3%vs Conservative 29.7% | - | 34.0% |
| Fairwater | Labour 42.1%vs Reform 22.7% | 2022 Labour 80.5%vs Conservative 19.5% | - | 27.0% |
| Greenmeadow | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 20.9% | 2022 Labour 62.5%vs Independent 37.5% | - | 33.0% |
| Llanfrechfa and Ponthir | Labour 37.2%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2022 Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 49.4% | - | 43.0% |
| Llantarnam | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 20.2% | 2022 Independent 55.8%vs Labour 31.3% | - | 37.0% |
| Llanyrafon | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 20.1% | 2022 Labour 66.6%vs Conservative 33.4% | - | 36.0% |
| New Inn | Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2022 Labour 55.4%vs Conservative 44.6% | - | 35.0% |
| Panteg | Labour 46.2%vs Reform 19.8% | 2022 Labour 75.0%vs Conservative 25.0% | - | 33.0% |
| Pontnewydd | Labour 44.9%vs Reform 22.1% | 2022 Labour 63.3%vs Independent 33.0% | - | 29.0% |
| Pontnewynydd and Snatchwood | Labour 40.6%vs Reform 24.8% | 2022 Labour 51.1%vs Independent 40.1% | - | 30.0% |
| Pontypool Fawr | Labour 40.2%vs Reform 24.0% | 2022 Labour 63.9%vs Independent 26.2% | - | 30.0% |
| St. Dials | Labour 40.8%vs Reform 25.6% | 2022 Independent 56.6%vs Labour 38.4% | - | 31.0% |
| Trevethin and Penygarn | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 23.8% | 2022 Labour 85.3%vs Conservative 14.7% | - | 23.0% |
| Two Locks | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 21.8% | 2022 Labour 51.2%vs Independent 24.1% | - | 32.0% |
| Upper Cwmbran | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 25.4% | 2022 Labour 57.5%vs Independent 42.5% | - | 22.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Torfaen at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Torfaen at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Paul Murphy | 44.8% | 20.0% | 16.6% | 9,306 | 61.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 44.6% | 23.1% | 3.4% | 8,169 | 61.3%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 57.6% | 31.0% | 2.2% | 10,240 | 62.1%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Nick Thomas-Symonds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.7% | 33.3% | 5.0% | 4,110 | 61.7%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 42.5% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 7,322 | 49.8%-11.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Torfaen
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Torfaen. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 10.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 62.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 15.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.