Torfaen
Wales · County constituency · Torfaen borough
About the Torfaen constituency
Torfaen is a county constituency in Wales, covering most or all of Torfaen. The sitting MP is Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour), first elected in May 2015.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Torfaen with 42.5% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 22.0%, a majority of 7,322 votes. Turnout was 49.8%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 30.6% and Labour on 24.7% in Torfaen, a margin of 5.9 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Torfaen is a strongly Leave-voting area (an estimated 60.8% voted Leave in 2016). About 26.8% of residents hold a degree, 64.4% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 42 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by Labour each time.
Who lives in Torfaen? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Torfaen vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Torfaen
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Torfaen voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Torfaen sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Fynwy Torfaen. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Torfaen | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Fynwy Torfaen | 99% | Reform UK 31.1% | Plaid Cymru 23.5% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Torfaen within Torfaen
The Westminster constituency of Torfaen sits entirely within Torfaen Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Torfaen was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Torfaen | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2025 | Trevethin and Penygarn | Ref GAIN from Lab | — |
| 3 Feb 2023 | Llantarnam | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Torfaen at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Torfaen at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Paul Murphy | 44.8% | 20.0% | 16.6% | 9,306 | 61.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 44.6% | 23.1% | 3.4% | 8,169 | 61.3%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 57.6% | 31.0% | 2.2% | 10,240 | 62.1%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Nick Thomas-Symonds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.7% | 33.3% | 5.0% | 4,110 | 61.7%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 42.5% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 7,322 | 49.8%-11.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Torfaen
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Torfaen. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 10.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.8 / 62.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.2 / 15.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.