Plymouth Moor View
South West · Borough constituency · Plymouth borough
About the Plymouth Moor View constituency
Plymouth Moor View is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Fred Thomas (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.2% to 28.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,604 votes on a 57.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.3% and Labour on 33.2%, a margin of 5.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Plymouth Moor View? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Plymouth Moor View vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Plymouth Moor View
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Plymouth Moor View within Plymouth
Plymouth Moor View sits entirely within Plymouth Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budshead | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Reform 40.6%vs Conservative 16.6% | Labour→Reform +22.2pp | 37.6% |
| Eggbuckland | Labour 36.7%vs Conservative 34.5% | May 2026 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 22.8% | Labour→Reform +21.0pp | 40.8% |
| Ham | Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | May 2026 Reform 44.4%vs Labour 21.1% | Labour→Reform +22.7pp | 33.9% |
| Honicknowle | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 52.9%vs Labour 23.6% | Labour→Reform +24.1pp | 33.2% |
| Moor View | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 50.6%vs Labour 17.4% | Labour→Reform +25.8pp | 40.4% |
| Peverell | Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | May 2026 Labour 37.2%vs Reform 28.1% | Labour share -11.7pp | 49.1% |
| Southway | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 27.0% | May 2026 Reform 46.2%vs Labour 16.6% | Labour→Reform +23.1pp | 36.7% |
| St Budeaux | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 25.2% | May 2026 Reform 49.9%vs Green 17.9% | Labour→Reform +24.8pp | 33.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Plymouth Moor View at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Plymouth Moor View at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Alison Seabeck | 37.2% | 33.3% | 16.9% | 1,588 | 61.0% |
| 2015 | Con gain from Lab | Johnny Mercer | 35.2% | 37.6% | 3.0% | 1,026 | 62.4%+1.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Johnny Mercer | 40.8% | 51.9% | 2.0% | 5,019 | 65.5%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Johnny Mercer 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 32.3% | 59.8% | 5.0% | 13,262 | 65.6%+0.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Fred Thomas | 41.2% | 28.1% | 4.1% | 5,604 | 57.4%-8.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Plymouth Moor View
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Plymouth Moor View. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave60.4 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent24.3 / 23.8vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.3 / 22.6vs 16.8
- ↑Leave60.4 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↑Leave60.4 / 63.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.4 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent24.3 / 28.5vs 16.8
- ↑Leave60.4 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 16.4vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.