Constituency profile

Blyth and Ashington

North East · County constituency · Northumberland borough

Ian Lavery MP
Sitting MP

Ian Lavery

Labour

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North East
County constituency, Northumberland council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
58.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +6.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +6.5pp
vs Reform UK 32.5%
NorthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the Blyth and Ashington constituency

Blyth and Ashington is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Ian Lavery (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.6% to 26.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,173 votes on a 52.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 39.0% and Reform UK on 32.5%, a margin of 6.5 points.

Who lives in Blyth and Ashington? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
58.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
22.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
59.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
40.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
43.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Blyth and Ashington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 9,173 votes (22.7pp) · turnout 52.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Blyth and Ashington

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Blyth and Ashington within Northumberland

Blyth and Ashington sits entirely within Northumberland Council. Northumberland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Northumberland
65 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Ashington CentralLabour 53.5%vs Reform 27.9%2021 Labour 55.8%vs Green 26.7%-29.7%
Bedlington CentralLabour 44.2%vs Reform 33.6%2021 Independent 48.2%vs Labour 32.4%-34.3%
Bedlington EastLabour 47.5%vs Reform 32.8%2021 Labour 45.9%vs Independent 42.7%-29.4%
Bedlington WestLabour 45.6%vs Reform 31.1%2021 Independent 50.7%vs Labour 28.6%-33.6%
BothalLabour 57.7%vs Reform 19.7%2021 Labour 58.7%vs Conservative 24.5%-34.4%
ChoppingtonLabour 45.4%vs Reform 31.7%2021 Labour 38.4%vs Independent 36.8%-32.2%
CollegeLabour 51.6%vs Reform 28.6%2021 Labour 74.3%vs Conservative 25.7%-28.9%
CowpenLabour 49.4%vs Reform 28.4%2021 Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 44.7%-26.3%
CroftLabour 52.8%vs Reform 25.4%2021 Labour 60.0%vs Conservative 31.6%-29.7%
HaydonLabour 56.5%vs Reform 21.3%2021 Labour 68.4%vs Conservative 31.6%-34.7%
HirstLabour 54.0%vs Reform 25.8%2021 Labour 71.8%vs Conservative 16.8%-24.1%
IsabellaLabour 52.3%vs Reform 26.8%2021 Labour 58.6%vs Conservative 41.4%-26.6%
Kitty BrewsterLabour 47.9%vs Reform 26.8%2021 Conservative 51.1%vs Labour 43.3%-27.7%
Newbiggin Central and EastLabour 48.8%vs Reform 27.9%2021 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 29.9%-34.1%
NewshamLabour 51.4%vs Reform 21.8%2021 Conservative 45.9%vs Labour 44.9%-31.3%
PlesseyLabour 45.4%vs Reform 26.1%2021 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Conservative 32.2%-36.5%
Seaton with Newbiggin WestLabour 49.2%vs Reform 27.3%2021 Labour 65.6%vs Conservative 34.4%-32.6%
SleekburnLabour 47.5%vs Reform 27.8%2021 Labour 45.1%vs Independent 27.5%-28.4%
South BlythLabour 39.0%vs Reform 27.5%2021 Conservative 73.0%vs Labour 17.7%-41.0%
StakefordLabour 47.9%vs Reform 26.4%2021 Labour 54.1%vs Conservative 45.9%-39.3%
WensleydaleLabour 52.7%vs Reform 24.2%2021 Labour 54.7%vs Conservative 41.8%-33.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Blyth and Ashington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Blyth and Ashington at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdIan Lavery Wansbeck MP45.8%17.5%27.5%2.5% UKIP1.6%5.0%7,03161.9%
2015predecessorLab holdIan Lavery Wansbeck MP50.0%21.8%6.2%18.2% UKIP3.8%-10,88163.5%+1.6
2017predecessorLab holdIan Lavery Wansbeck MP57.3%32.7%4.7%3.5% UKIP1.7%-10,43568.3%+4.8
2019notionalLabour winnerIan Lavery Wansbeck MP, pre-review boundary47.7%33.5%6.4%-2.9%9.5%6,11857.0%
2024Lab holdIan Lavery49.6%15.2%3.5%26.9% Ref4.9%-9,17352.7%-4.3

Blyth and Ashington was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wansbeck (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Blyth and Ashington

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Blyth and Ashington. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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