Blyth and Ashington
North East · County constituency · Northumberland borough
About the Blyth and Ashington constituency
Blyth and Ashington is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Ian Lavery (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.6% to 26.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,173 votes on a 52.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 39.0% and Reform UK on 32.5%, a margin of 6.5 points.
Who lives in Blyth and Ashington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Blyth and Ashington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Blyth and Ashington
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Blyth and Ashington within Northumberland
Blyth and Ashington sits entirely within Northumberland Council. Northumberland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Northumberland | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashington Central | Labour 53.5%vs Reform 27.9% | 2021 Labour 55.8%vs Green 26.7% | - | 29.7% |
| Bedlington Central | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 33.6% | 2021 Independent 48.2%vs Labour 32.4% | - | 34.3% |
| Bedlington East | Labour 47.5%vs Reform 32.8% | 2021 Labour 45.9%vs Independent 42.7% | - | 29.4% |
| Bedlington West | Labour 45.6%vs Reform 31.1% | 2021 Independent 50.7%vs Labour 28.6% | - | 33.6% |
| Bothal | Labour 57.7%vs Reform 19.7% | 2021 Labour 58.7%vs Conservative 24.5% | - | 34.4% |
| Choppington | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 31.7% | 2021 Labour 38.4%vs Independent 36.8% | - | 32.2% |
| College | Labour 51.6%vs Reform 28.6% | 2021 Labour 74.3%vs Conservative 25.7% | - | 28.9% |
| Cowpen | Labour 49.4%vs Reform 28.4% | 2021 Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 44.7% | - | 26.3% |
| Croft | Labour 52.8%vs Reform 25.4% | 2021 Labour 60.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 29.7% |
| Haydon | Labour 56.5%vs Reform 21.3% | 2021 Labour 68.4%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 34.7% |
| Hirst | Labour 54.0%vs Reform 25.8% | 2021 Labour 71.8%vs Conservative 16.8% | - | 24.1% |
| Isabella | Labour 52.3%vs Reform 26.8% | 2021 Labour 58.6%vs Conservative 41.4% | - | 26.6% |
| Kitty Brewster | Labour 47.9%vs Reform 26.8% | 2021 Conservative 51.1%vs Labour 43.3% | - | 27.7% |
| Newbiggin Central and East | Labour 48.8%vs Reform 27.9% | 2021 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 34.1% |
| Newsham | Labour 51.4%vs Reform 21.8% | 2021 Conservative 45.9%vs Labour 44.9% | - | 31.3% |
| Plessey | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 26.1% | 2021 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 36.5% |
| Seaton with Newbiggin West | Labour 49.2%vs Reform 27.3% | 2021 Labour 65.6%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 32.6% |
| Sleekburn | Labour 47.5%vs Reform 27.8% | 2021 Labour 45.1%vs Independent 27.5% | - | 28.4% |
| South Blyth | Labour 39.0%vs Reform 27.5% | 2021 Conservative 73.0%vs Labour 17.7% | - | 41.0% |
| Stakeford | Labour 47.9%vs Reform 26.4% | 2021 Labour 54.1%vs Conservative 45.9% | - | 39.3% |
| Wensleydale | Labour 52.7%vs Reform 24.2% | 2021 Labour 54.7%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | 33.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Blyth and Ashington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Blyth and Ashington at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Ian Lavery Wansbeck MP | 45.8% | 17.5% | 27.5% | 7,031 | 61.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Ian Lavery Wansbeck MP | 50.0% | 21.8% | 6.2% | 10,881 | 63.5%+1.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Ian Lavery Wansbeck MP | 57.3% | 32.7% | 4.7% | 10,435 | 68.3%+4.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Ian Lavery Wansbeck MP, pre-review boundary | 47.7% | 33.5% | 6.4% | 6,118 | 57.0% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Ian Lavery | 49.6% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 9,173 | 52.7%-4.3 |
Blyth and Ashington was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wansbeck (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Blyth and Ashington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Blyth and Ashington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 25.7vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 22.4vs 16.8
- ↓Employed52.5 / 53.6vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↑Leave58.4 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Employed52.5 / 53.1vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 20.6vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 23.8vs 16.8
- ↑Leave58.4 / 58.6vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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