Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
North East · County constituency · County Durham borough
About the Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor constituency
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Alan Strickland (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.2% to 24.0% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,839 votes on a 55.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.4% and Reform UK on 29.6%, a margin of 6.8 points.
Who lives in Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor within County Durham
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor sits entirely within County Durham Council. County Durham was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| County Durham | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aycliffe East | Labour 49.8%vs Reform 21.8% | No council data | - | - |
| Aycliffe North and Middridge | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 25.3% | No council data | - | - |
| Aycliffe West | Labour 47.1%vs Reform 27.7% | No council data | - | - |
| Bishop Middleham and Cornforth | Labour 43.6%vs Reform 26.3% | No council data | - | - |
| Chilton | Labour 45.6%vs Reform 25.8% | No council data | - | - |
| Coxhoe | Labour 47.2%vs Reform 24.1% | No council data | - | - |
| Ferryhill | Labour 44.6%vs Reform 27.1% | No council data | - | - |
| Sedgefield | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 28.6% | No council data | - | - |
| Spennymoor | Labour 48.5%vs Reform 22.1% | No council data | - | - |
| Trimdon and Thornley | Labour 49.8%vs Reform 23.3% | No council data | - | - |
| Tudhoe | Labour 44.4%vs Reform 27.0% | No council data | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP | 45.1% | 23.5% | 20.0% | 8,696 | 62.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP | 47.2% | 29.5% | 3.5% | 6,843 | 61.6%-0.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP | 53.4% | 38.8% | 1.9% | 6,059 | 65.1%+3.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Howell Sedgefield MP, pre-review boundary | 38.3% | 46.1% | 5.4% | 3,408 | 60.8% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Alan Strickland | 46.2% | 20.6% | 3.7% | 8,839 | 55.2%-5.6 |
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Sedgefield (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate25.7 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 22.6vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 17.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.7 / 27.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 17.2vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 19.1vs 16.8
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 21.8vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate25.7 / 28.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.7 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 20.7vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.7 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 20.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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