Runcorn and Helsby
North West · County constituency
About the Runcorn and Helsby constituency
Runcorn and Helsby is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Sarah Pochin (Reform UK), first elected in May 2025. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 52.9% to 18.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 14,696 votes on a 59.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 42.8% and Reform UK on 29.8%, a margin of 13.0 points.
Who lives in Runcorn and Helsby? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Runcorn and Helsby vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Runcorn and Helsby
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Runcorn and Helsby within Halton and Cheshire West and Chester
Runcorn and Helsby crosses council boundaries: Halton (70%), Cheshire West and Chester (30%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Halton | 70% | View projection › |
| Cheshire West and Chester | 30% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beechwood & Heath | Labour 47.2%vs Reform 17.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Reform 39.5% | Labour→Lib Dem +40.3pp | - |
| Bridgewater | Labour 57.0%vs Reform 20.0% | May 2026 Reform 45.2%vs Labour 28.9% | Labour→Reform +26.6pp | - |
| Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor | Labour 50.7%vs Conservative 18.2% | May 2026 Reform 36.7%vs Labour 32.1% | Labour→Reform +19.1pp | - |
| Frodsham | Labour 56.5%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2023 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 36.4% | - | 47.0% |
| Gowy Rural | Labour 49.7%vs Conservative 21.5% | 2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Labour 24.2% | - | 42.3% |
| Grange | Labour 53.5%vs Reform 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 40.5%vs Labour 29.0% | Labour→Reform +21.3pp | - |
| Halton Castle | Labour 56.9%vs Reform 22.0% | May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Labour 34.2% | Labour→Reform +20.3pp | - |
| Halton Lea | Labour 58.4%vs Reform 20.7% | May 2026 Reform 45.4%vs Labour 32.1% | Labour→Reform +25.5pp | - |
| Helsby | Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 17.9% | 2023 Green 54.3%vs Labour 22.9% | - | 40.4% |
| Mersey & Weston | Labour 53.8%vs Reform 20.9% | May 2026 Reform 37.6%vs Labour 27.2% | Labour→Reform +21.6pp | - |
| Norton North | Labour 57.0%vs Reform 18.7% | May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Labour 28.1% | Labour→Reform +25.1pp | - |
| Norton South & Preston Brook | Labour 55.6%vs Reform 20.8% | May 2026 Reform 41.6%vs Labour 32.6% | Labour→Reform +21.9pp | - |
| Sandstone | Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 27.0% | 2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 26.7% | - | 42.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Runcorn and Helsby at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Runcorn and Helsby at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Graham Evans Weaver Vale MP | 36.3% | 38.5% | 18.6% | 991 | 65.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Graham Evans Weaver Vale MP | 41.4% | 43.2% | 3.0% | 806 | 68.5%+3.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Mike Amesbury Weaver Vale MP | 51.5% | 43.7% | 3.2% | 3,928 | 73.3%+4.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Mike Amesbury Weaver Vale MP, pre-review boundary | 48.8% | 36.8% | 6.7% | 5,779 | 68.2% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Mike Amesbury | 52.9% | 16.0% | 5.1% | 14,696 | 59.7%-8.5 |
Runcorn and Helsby was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Weaver Vale (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Runcorn and Helsby
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Runcorn and Helsby. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 25.3vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent21.8 / 20.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 29.1vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent21.8 / 19.8vs 16.8
- ↑Social rent21.8 / 22.4vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 25.7vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 16.0vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 29.1vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 27.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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