Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Wales · County constituency
About the Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney constituency
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Nick Smith (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 53.6% to 12.8% for Plaid Cymru, a majority of 12,183 votes on a 42.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.7% and Reform UK on 19.1%, a margin of 12.7 points.
Who lives in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni | 99% | Plaid Cymru 42.0% | Reform UK 34.3% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney within Blaenau Gwent and Caerphilly
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney crosses council boundaries: Blaenau Gwent (72%), Caerphilly (28%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Blaenau Gwent | 72% |
| Caerphilly | 28% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2024 | Aberbargoed and Bargoed | Lab HOLD | — |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Ebbw Vale South | Ind GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberbargoed and Bargoed | Labour 51.8%vs Plaid Cymru 16.0% | 2022 Labour 48.9%vs Plaid Cymru 41.8% | - | - |
| Abertillery and Six Bells | Labour 51.4%vs Others 13.5% | 2022 Independent 57.3%vs Labour 42.7% | - | - |
| Beaufort | Labour 52.0%vs Others 13.9% | 2022 Independent 53.8%vs Labour 46.2% | - | - |
| Blaina | Labour 53.5%vs Others 12.8% | 2022 Independent 57.4%vs Labour 42.6% | - | - |
| Brynmawr | Labour 48.6%vs Others 16.4% | 2022 Independent 81.1%vs Labour 18.9% | - | - |
| Cwm | Labour 55.8%vs Plaid Cymru 13.0% | 2022 Labour 47.8%vs Independent 41.7% | - | - |
| Cwmtillery | Labour 48.6%vs Others 15.2% | 2022 Independent 59.2%vs Labour 40.8% | - | - |
| Darran Valley | Labour 58.4%vs Conservative 13.2% | 2022 Labour 89.5%vs Independent 10.5% | - | - |
| Ebbw Vale North | Labour 50.9%vs Plaid Cymru 13.3% | 2022 Labour 50.1%vs Independent 49.9% | - | - |
| Ebbw Vale South | Labour 51.4%vs Plaid Cymru 13.8% | 2022 Independent 56.6%vs Labour 37.8% | - | - |
| Georgetown | Labour 56.6%vs Plaid Cymru 14.1% | 2022 Labour 77.7%vs Plaid Cymru 22.3% | - | - |
| Gilfach | Labour 57.6%vs Conservative 12.6% | 2022 Labour 72.7%vs Plaid Cymru 27.3% | - | - |
| Llanhilleth | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 14.4% | 2022 Labour 45.2%vs Independent 38.0% | - | - |
| Moriah and Pontlottyn | Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 13.4% | 2022 Labour 75.0%vs Plaid Cymru 25.0% | - | - |
| Nantyglo | Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 12.8% | 2022 Labour 74.5%vs Independent 25.5% | - | - |
| New Tredegar | Labour 52.7%vs Plaid Cymru 14.2% | 2022 Labour 74.0%vs Independent 26.0% | - | - |
| Rassau and Garnlydan | Labour 52.4%vs Others 13.7% | 2022 Independent 62.0%vs Labour 38.0% | - | - |
| Sirhowy | Labour 55.6%vs Conservative 12.6% | 2022 Labour 75.0%vs Independent 25.0% | - | - |
| Tredegar | Labour 59.5%vs Plaid Cymru 12.2% | 2022 Labour 63.4%vs Plaid Cymru 24.3% | - | - |
| Twyn Carno | Labour 58.5%vs Plaid Cymru 12.9% | 2022 Labour 80.4%vs Independent 19.6% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab gain from BGPV | Nick Smith Blaenau Gwent MP | 52.4% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 10,516 | 61.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Nick Smith Blaenau Gwent MP | 58.0% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 12,703 | 61.7%-0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Nick Smith Blaenau Gwent MP | 58.0% | 14.8% | 0.9% | 11,907 | 63.2%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Nick Smith Blaenau Gwent MP, pre-review boundary | 50.4% | 19.6% | 3.7% | 12,969 | 59.2% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Nick Smith | 53.6% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 12,183 | 42.7%-16.5 |
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Blaenau Gwent (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate20.9 / 23.7vs 33.7
- ↑No quals28.7 / 27.0vs 18.0
- ↓Employed51.4 / 50.4vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate20.9 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 22.6vs 16.8
- ↑Leave58.6 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.9 / 21.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals28.7 / 26.2vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 22.9vs 16.8
- ↑No quals28.7 / 26.0vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate20.9 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↓Employed51.4 / 52.5vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate20.9 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 28.5vs 16.8
- ↓Employed51.4 / 52.3vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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