Aberafan Maesteg
Wales · County constituency
About the Aberafan Maesteg constituency
Aberafan Maesteg is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Stephen Kinnock (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.9% to 20.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 10,354 votes on a 49.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 28.2% and Reform UK on 27.4%, a margin of 0.7 points.
Who lives in Aberafan Maesteg? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aberafan Maesteg vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aberafan Maesteg
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Aberafan Maesteg voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Aberafan Maesteg sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Afan Ogwr Rhondda. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Aberafan Maesteg | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Ogwr Rhondda | 98% | Plaid Cymru 36.9% | Reform UK 33.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
| Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | 1% | Reform UK 33.2% | Plaid Cymru 28.7% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrats |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Aberafan Maesteg within Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend
Aberafan Maesteg crosses council boundaries: Neath Port Talbot (62%), Bridgend (38%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Neath Port Talbot | 62% |
| Bridgend | 38% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Baglan | Lab HOLD | Lab 38% Other 28% Ref 24% |
| 1 May 2025 | Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 35% Lab 34% Other 18% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Briton Ferry East | Lab GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberavon | Labour 47.3%vs Reform 20.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 43.9%vs Labour 43.9% | - | - |
| Baglan | Labour 52.1%vs Reform 19.6% | 2022 Labour 74.3%vs Independent 17.2% | - | - |
| Briton Ferry East | Labour 46.5%vs Reform 25.7% | 2022 Independent 44.6%vs Labour 44.4% | - | - |
| Briton Ferry West | Labour 45.1%vs Reform 27.1% | 2022 Independent 49.5%vs Labour 39.4% | - | - |
| Bryn and Cwmavon | Labour 51.7%vs Reform 16.8% | 2022 Labour 83.2%vs Independent 16.8% | - | - |
| Caerau | Labour 50.6%vs Reform 23.6% | 2022 Labour 47.9%vs Independent 42.4% | - | - |
| Cimla and Pelenna | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 23.4% | 2022 Independent 61.9%vs Labour 38.1% | - | - |
| Cornelly | Labour 46.5%vs Reform 24.9% | 2022 Labour 52.6%vs Independent 33.5% | - | - |
| Cymer and Glyncorrwg | Labour 41.9%vs Reform 23.4% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Gwynfi and Croeserw | Labour 38.9%vs Reform 28.4% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llangynwyd | Labour 47.8%vs Plaid Cymru 23.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 51.1%vs Labour 42.2% | - | - |
| Maesteg East | Labour 52.9%vs Reform 22.5% | 2022 Labour 49.2%vs Independent 40.3% | - | - |
| Maesteg West | Labour 49.9%vs Reform 22.4% | 2022 Independent 53.7%vs Labour 35.6% | - | - |
| Margam and Tai-bach | Labour 49.3%vs Reform 19.1% | 2022 Labour 51.5%vs Plaid Cymru 36.3% | - | - |
| Port Talbot | Labour 56.0%vs Reform 18.4% | 2022 Labour 62.2%vs Plaid Cymru 21.0% | - | 34.1% |
| Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr | Labour 49.2%vs Reform 21.3% | 2022 Labour 73.2%vs Conservative 14.8% | - | - |
| Sandfields East | Labour 56.6%vs Reform 16.6% | 2022 Labour 70.8%vs Plaid Cymru 23.8% | - | - |
| Sandfields West | Labour 46.4%vs Reform 21.8% | 2022 Labour 69.5%vs Plaid Cymru 30.5% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aberafan Maesteg at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aberafan Maesteg at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Hywel Francis Aberavon MP | 51.9% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 11,039 | 60.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Kinnock Aberavon MP | 48.9% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 10,445 | 63.3%+2.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Kinnock Aberavon MP | 68.1% | 17.7% | 1.8% | 16,761 | 66.7%+3.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Stephen Kinnock Aberavon MP, pre-review boundary | 52.9% | 22.6% | 3.7% | 13,457 | 63.6% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Stephen Kinnock | 49.9% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 10,354 | 49.3%-14.3 |
Aberafan Maesteg was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Aberavon (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Aberafan Maesteg
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberafan Maesteg. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.7 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals27.0 / 26.0vs 18.0
- ↓Employed50.4 / 52.5vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate23.7 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↓Employed50.4 / 52.3vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate23.7 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals27.0 / 28.7vs 18.0
- ↓Employed50.4 / 51.4vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate23.7 / 25.7vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 16.0vs 20.2
- ↓Employed50.4 / 53.6vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate23.7 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑No quals27.0 / 21.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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