Heywood and Middleton North
North West · County constituency · Rochdale borough
About the Heywood and Middleton North constituency
Heywood and Middleton North is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mrs Elsie Blundell (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.6% to 24.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,082 votes on a 50.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.4% and Labour on 30.5%, a margin of 1.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Heywood and Middleton North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Heywood and Middleton North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Heywood and Middleton North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Heywood and Middleton North within Rochdale
Heywood and Middleton North sits entirely within Rochdale Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bamford | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Conservative 34.5%vs Reform 28.3% | Labour→Conservative +15.4pp | 43.4% |
| Castleton | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 23.9% | May 2026 Reform 44.7%vs Labour 23.3% | Labour→Reform +19.6pp | 37.5% |
| Hopwood Hall | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 23.3% | May 2026 Reform 47.9%vs Labour 26.7% | Labour→Reform +20.6pp | 36.1% |
| Norden | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 27.2% | May 2026 Conservative 42.2%vs Reform 30.3% | Labour→Conservative +18.9pp | 48.5% |
| North Heywood | Labour 43.6%vs Reform 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 53.8%vs Labour 23.5% | Labour→Reform +24.8pp | 31.7% |
| North Middleton | Labour 40.9%vs Reform 25.2% | May 2026 Reform 44.8%vs Others 18.5% | Labour→Reform +21.5pp | 34.8% |
| South Middleton | Labour 44.1%vs Reform 20.7% | May 2026 Reform 44.2%vs Labour 32.7% | Labour→Reform +17.5pp | 42.9% |
| Spotland & Falinge | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 19.7% | May 2026 Reform 30.4%vs Labour 30.2% | Labour→Reform +12.0pp | 39.1% |
| West Heywood | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 27.7% | May 2026 Reform 49.6%vs Labour 31.0% | Labour→Reform +15.3pp | 33.9% |
| West Middleton | Labour 42.9%vs Reform 27.2% | May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Labour 33.8% | Labour→Reform +11.0pp | 30.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Heywood and Middleton North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Heywood and Middleton North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Jim Dobbin Heywood and Middleton MP | 40.1% | 27.2% | 22.7% | 5,971 | 57.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Liz McInnes Heywood and Middleton MP | 43.1% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 5,299 | 60.7%+3.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Liz McInnes Heywood and Middleton MP | 53.3% | 38.0% | 2.2% | 7,617 | 62.4%+1.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | — | 43.1% | 41.5% | 4.2% | 680 | 57.9% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Elsie Blundell | 40.6% | 17.3% | 6.2% | 6,082 | 50.6%-7.3 |
Heywood and Middleton North was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Heywood and Middleton (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Heywood and Middleton North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Heywood and Middleton North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave59.9 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 27.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.7 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↑Leave59.9 / 59.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 27.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.7 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.9 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals22.7 / 23.4vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.7 / 22.6vs 18.0
- ↑Leave59.9 / 58.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.9 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↑No quals22.7 / 21.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.