Bolton North East
North West · Borough constituency · Bolton borough
About the Bolton North East constituency
Bolton North East is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Kirith Entwistle (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 37.3% to 21.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,653 votes on a 54.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and Labour on 29.3%, a margin of 1.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bolton North East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bolton North East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bolton North East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bolton North East within Bolton
Bolton North East sits entirely within Bolton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astley Bridge | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | May 2026 Reform 32.7%vs Conservative 25.0% | Labour→Reform +14.3pp | - |
| Bradshaw | Labour 33.0%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Conservative 37.4%vs Reform 35.6% | Labour→Conservative +13.5pp | - |
| Breightmet | Labour 37.1%vs Reform 23.7% | May 2026 Reform 47.3%vs Conservative 24.4% | Labour→Reform +22.8pp | - |
| Bromley Cross | Labour 32.5%vs Conservative 31.0% | May 2026 Conservative 36.3%vs Reform 33.8% | Labour→Conservative +12.8pp | - |
| Halliwell | Labour 48.1%vs Reform 19.3% | May 2026 Green 41.8%vs Labour 34.5% | Labour→Green +22.2pp | - |
| Little Lever & Darcy Lever | Labour 33.4%vs Reform 25.2% | May 2026 Reform 49.6%vs Conservative 22.5% | Labour→Reform +21.4pp | - |
| Queens Park & Central | Labour 45.6%vs Green 15.2% | May 2026 Green 35.1%vs Labour 33.6% | Labour→Green +16.0pp | - |
| Tonge with the Haulgh | Labour 38.7%vs Reform 24.1% | May 2026 Reform 47.1%vs Labour 30.0% | Labour→Reform +15.9pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bolton North East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bolton North East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | David Crausby | 45.9% | 36.5% | 13.0% | 4,084 | 64.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | David Crausby | 43.0% | 32.8% | 2.9% | 4,377 | 63.6%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | David Crausby | 50.6% | 42.2% | 2.9% | 3,797 | 67.2%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Logan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.4% | 45.0% | 4.4% | 1,278 | 64.7%-2.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Kirith Entwistle | 37.3% | 21.9% | 3.5% | 6,653 | 54.2%-10.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bolton North East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bolton North East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↓Employed52.8 / 52.8vs 57.3
- ↑Leave58.1 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.1 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals22.6 / 22.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↑Leave58.1 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 23.4vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent21.3 / 22.5vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.1 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↑No quals22.6 / 24.5vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.