Bradford South
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Bradford borough
About the Bradford South constituency
Bradford South is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Judith Cummins (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.8% to 22.5% for Reform UK, a majority of 4,392 votes on a 46.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.5% and Labour on 20.7%, a margin of 10.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bradford South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bradford South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bradford South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bradford South within Bradford
Bradford South sits entirely within Bradford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling and Barkerend | Others 41.9%vs Labour 31.0% | May 2026 Labour 33.6%vs Others 27.8% | Others→Labour +22.3pp | - |
| Great Horton | Labour 37.2%vs Others 18.8% | May 2026 Labour 35.7%vs Others 29.0% | Labour share -1.5pp | - |
| Queensbury | Labour 34.6%vs Reform 24.0% | May 2026 Reform 50.9%vs Green 14.4% | Labour→Reform +23.7pp | - |
| Royds | Labour 36.3%vs Reform 23.7% | May 2026 Reform 50.2%vs Labour 22.8% | Labour→Reform +20.0pp | - |
| Tong | Labour 35.3%vs Reform 24.0% | 2024 Green 60.6%vs Labour 26.4% | - | - |
| Wibsey | Labour 36.0%vs Reform 21.6% | May 2026 Reform 39.6%vs Labour 26.6%now part of Wibsey Odsal | Labour→Reform +13.7pp | - |
| Wyke | Labour 36.4%vs Reform 24.4% | May 2026 Reform 51.6%vs Labour 17.8% | Labour→Reform +22.9pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bradford South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bradford South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Gerry Sutcliffe | 41.3% | 29.1% | 18.3% | 4,622 | 59.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Judith Cummins | 43.4% | 26.3% | 2.9% | 6,450 | 59.1%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Judith Cummins | 54.5% | 38.2% | 1.3% | 6,700 | 60.6%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Judith Cummins 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 46.7% | 40.1% | 3.7% | 2,729 | 57.7%-2.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Judith Cummins | 35.8% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4,392 | 46.5%-11.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bradford South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bradford South. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.6 / 62.7vs 53.2
- ↑No quals25.5 / 25.4vs 18.0
- ↑Leave63.6 / 66.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 24.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.5 / 24.8vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑No quals25.5 / 23.1vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.6 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals25.5 / 22.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate22.6 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.5 / 24.3vs 18.0
- ↓Age 65+18.4 / 18.9vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.