Rochdale
North West · County constituency · Rochdale borough
About the Rochdale constituency
Rochdale is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Paul Waugh (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 32.8% to 29.2% for other parties, a majority of 1,440 votes on a 54.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 27.7% and other parties on 26.4%, a margin of 1.4 points.
Who lives in Rochdale? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rochdale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rochdale
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rochdale within Rochdale
Rochdale sits entirely within Rochdale Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balderstone & Kirkholt | Labour 39.8%vs Others 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 42.4%vs Labour 25.4% | Labour→Reform +18.3pp | 33.5% |
| Central Rochdale | Others 44.1%vs Labour 28.5% | May 2026 Others 47.3%vs Labour 34.7% | Others→Others +45.7pp | 43.9% |
| Healey | Labour 34.3%vs Others 26.2% | May 2026 Reform 37.5%vs Labour 22.3% | Labour→Reform +16.2pp | 43.3% |
| Kingsway | Labour 38.6%vs Others 28.7% | May 2026 Labour 34.4%vs Others 24.0% | Labour share -4.2pp | 40.6% |
| Littleborough Lakeside | Labour 39.8%vs Reform 18.6% | May 2026 Reform 40.7%vs Labour 34.3% | Labour→Reform +13.8pp | 46.2% |
| Milkstone & Deeplish | Others 49.6%vs Labour 25.1% | May 2026 Others 49.7%vs Labour 32.4% | Others→Others +49.7pp | 40.2% |
| Milnrow & Newhey | Labour 31.2%vs Others 21.6% | May 2026 Reform 39.1%vs Lib Dem 36.5% | Labour→Reform +18.6pp | 42.1% |
| Smallbridge & Firgrove | Labour 31.8%vs Others 30.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 29.9%vs Reform 27.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +15.7pp | 35.4% |
| Wardle, Shore & West Littleborough | Labour 26.7%vs Conservative 22.5% | May 2026 Reform 40.0%vs Conservative 33.0% | Labour→Reform +16.1pp | 43.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rochdale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rochdale at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Simon Danczuk | 36.4% | 18.1% | 34.4% | 889 | 58.1% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Simon Danczuk | 46.1% | 17.0% | 10.3% | 12,442 | 58.8%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Tony Lloyd | 58.0% | 28.4% | 8.0% | 14,819 | 64.1%+5.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Tony Lloyd 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 50.8% | 31.6% | 7.5% | 8,109 | 58.7%-5.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Paul Waugh | 32.8% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 1,440 | 54.7%-4.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Rochdale
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rochdale. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.1 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.3 / 26.7vs 18.0
- ↓Employed52.1 / 51.3vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.1 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.3 / 25.0vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent21.3 / 22.9vs 16.8
- ↓Employed52.1 / 50.9vs 57.3
- ↑No quals24.3 / 21.6vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate26.1 / 30.2vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate26.1 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.3 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave57.5 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.1 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.3 / 23.1vs 18.0
- ↓Employed52.1 / 52.8vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.