Derby South
East Midlands · Borough constituency · Derby borough
About the Derby South constituency
Derby South is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Baggy Shanker (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.8% to 22.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,002 votes on a 51.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 29.6% and Reform UK on 29.4%, a margin of 0.2 points.
Who lives in Derby South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Derby South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Derby South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Derby South within Derby
Derby South sits entirely within Derby Council. Derby was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Derby | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaston North | Reform 36.1%vs Labour 34.3% | 2023 Others 56.1%vs Labour 34.1% | - | 27.0% |
| Alvaston South | Labour 33.8%vs Reform 31.3% | 2023 Others 53.0%vs Labour 40.2% | - | 30.0% |
| Arboretum | Labour 47.2%vs Reform 15.7% | 2023 Labour 69.2%vs Conservative 14.8% | - | 29.7% |
| Blagreaves | Labour 37.0%vs Reform 17.8% | 2023 Labour 47.2%vs Lib Dem 41.8% | - | 47.1% |
| Chellaston & Shelton Lock | Labour 28.8%vs Reform 25.3% | 2023 Independent 37.0%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 34.0% |
| Darley | Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Labour 63.8%vs Conservative 15.2% | - | 48.1% |
| Normanton | Labour 46.8%vs Reform 15.9% | 2023 Labour 71.7%vs Conservative 12.5% | - | 47.5% |
| Sinfin & Osmaston | Labour 45.3%vs Reform 16.9% | 2023 Labour 70.7%vs Others 13.4% | - | 25.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Derby South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Derby South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Margaret Beckett | 43.3% | 28.5% | 20.5% | 6,122 | 58.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Margaret Beckett | 49.0% | 27.4% | 4.2% | 8,828 | 58.1%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Margaret Beckett | 58.3% | 33.5% | 2.7% | 11,248 | 64.8%+6.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Margaret Beckett 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 51.1% | 36.9% | 6.2% | 6,019 | 58.9%-5.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Baggy Shanker | 38.8% | 13.9% | 4.8% | 6,002 | 51.3%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Derby South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Derby South. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied52.2 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.4 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.2 / 52.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.4 / 62.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.2 / 52.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 26.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.0 / 24.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.0 / 24.3vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 21.3vs 16.8
- ↑Leave61.4 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.0 / 25.5vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.