Constituency profile

Coventry East

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Coventry borough

Mary Creagh MP
Sitting MP

Mary Creagh

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Coventry council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
54.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +2.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +12.6pp
vs Reform UK 29.1%
MidlandsBrexit-marginalWorking-class profileDiverse

About the Coventry East constituency

Coventry East is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Mary Creagh (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.5% to 18.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 11,623 votes on a 48.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.7% and Reform UK on 29.1%, a margin of 12.6 points.

Who lives in Coventry East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
54.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
24.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
52.8%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
46.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
35.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
17.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
34.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Coventry East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 11,623 votes (31.4pp) · turnout 48.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Coventry East

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Coventry East within Coventry

Coventry East sits entirely within Coventry Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Coventry
70 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Binley and WillenhallLabour 44.8%vs Reform 19.4%May 2026 Reform 41.6%vs Labour 31.0%
Labour→Reform
+18.0pp
-
FoleshillLabour 51.0%vs Reform 16.2%May 2026 Labour 45.2%vs Green 21.6%
Labour share
-5.8pp
-
HenleyLabour 51.0%vs Reform 18.2%May 2026 Reform 35.9%vs Labour 33.0%
Labour→Reform
+17.9pp
-
LongfordLabour 52.4%vs Reform 18.7%May 2026 Labour 35.1%vs Reform 34.8%
Labour share
-17.3pp
-
Upper StokeLabour 50.1%vs Reform 18.7%May 2026 Labour 37.3%vs Reform 32.3%
Labour share
-12.8pp
-
WykenLabour 47.5%vs Conservative 21.6%May 2026 Reform 39.0%vs Labour 30.4%
Labour→Reform
+19.6pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Coventry East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Coventry East at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdBob Ainsworth Coventry North East MP49.3%22.1%16.6%3.0% UKIP-9.0%11,77559.4%
2015predecessorLab holdColleen Fletcher Coventry North East MP52.2%23.1%4.8%14.9% UKIP2.9%2.2%12,27456.0%-3.4
2017predecessorLab holdColleen Fletcher Coventry North East MP63.4%29.9%2.5%2.9% UKIP1.1%0.2%15,58061.4%+5.4
2019notionalLabour winnerColleen Fletcher Coventry North East MP, pre-review boundary52.1%35.0%5.4%-2.3%5.2%7,28858.2%
2024Lab holdMary Creagh49.5%16.9%3.3%18.1% Ref7.4%4.9%11,62348.8%-9.4

Coventry East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Coventry North East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Coventry East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Coventry East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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