Birmingham Erdington
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough
About the Birmingham Erdington constituency
Birmingham Erdington is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Paulette Hamilton (Labour), first elected in March 2022. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.3% to 22.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,019 votes on a 44.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.6% and Labour on 30.6%, a margin of 1.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Birmingham Erdington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Birmingham Erdington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Birmingham Erdington
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Birmingham Erdington within Birmingham
Birmingham Erdington sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Vale | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 25.2% | May 2026 Labour 44.4%vs Reform 42.2% | Labour share +1.1pp | - |
| Erdington | Labour 43.8%vs Reform 23.4% | May 2026 Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 18.7% | Labour→Conservative +24.9pp | - |
| Gravelly Hill | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 21.3% | May 2026 Labour 29.6%vs Lib Dem 19.9% | Labour share -15.8pp | - |
| Kingstanding | Labour 43.8%vs Reform 24.0% | May 2026 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 22.9% | Labour→Reform +22.5pp | - |
| Oscott | Others 49.7%vs Labour 23.5% | May 2026 Reform 39.5%vs Conservative 25.8% | Others→Reform +39.2pp | - |
| Perry Common | Labour 43.9%vs Reform 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 42.3%vs Labour 20.2% | Labour→Reform +21.3pp | - |
| Pype Hayes | Labour 44.4%vs Reform 23.5% | May 2026 Reform 43.9%vs Labour 21.0% | Labour→Reform +21.9pp | - |
| Stockland Green | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 22.0% | May 2026 Others 27.5%vs Reform 23.2% | Labour→Others +25.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Erdington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Birmingham Erdington at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Jack Dromey | 41.8% | 32.6% | 16.2% | 3,277 | 53.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Jack Dromey | 45.6% | 30.8% | 2.8% | 5,129 | 53.3%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Jack Dromey | 58.0% | 38.4% | 2.0% | 7,285 | 57.2%+3.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Jack Dromey 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 49.4% | 41.5% | 3.3% | 3,305 | 54.0%-3.2 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Paulette Hamilton | 43.3% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 7,019 | 44.1%-9.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Birmingham Erdington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Erdington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied51.9 / 52.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 26.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.4 / 24.3vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied51.9 / 48.0vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent25.0 / 28.6vs 16.8
- ↑No quals26.4 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied51.9 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.4 / 26.4vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent25.0 / 26.5vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.4 / 24.5vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied51.9 / 52.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.4 / 25.0vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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